Northern-Ireland · Championship
Loughgall vs Newry City AFC Prediction
· Lakeview Park
Match prediction
- Newry's superior form, attack, defence and Poisson ratings support the away win, though the model's equal 45% away and draw probabilities signal real uncertainty.
- Loughgall's strong head-to-head and goals-comparison scores conflict with their poor form, suggesting the model may be discounting venue-specific history.
- Loughgall's home record shows no wins with three draws, while Newry remain unbeaten away, reinforcing the away-leaning prediction.
- Both teams' recent matches and season goal totals point to at least two goals, supporting the +1.5 goals component of the advice.
- Newry's away defence concedes just one goal per game, but Loughgall's home attack still scores, making a clean-sheet away win less certain.
- The draw probability matching the away win probability means the combo advice carries genuine risk despite Newry's statistical edge.
- Predicted winner
- Newry City AFC
- Betting advice
- Combo Winner : Newry City AFC and +1.5 goals
- Home win probability
- 10%
- Draw probability
- 45%
- Away win probability
- 45%
- Goals market
- +1.5
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Loughgall | Newry City AFC |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 18.0% | 82.0% |
| Attack | 31.0% | 69.0% |
| Defence | 36.0% | 64.0% |
| Poisson | 19.0% | 81.0% |
| H2h | 85.0% | 15.0% |
| Goals | 79.0% | 21.0% |
| Total | 44.7% | 55.3% |
Team form and goal analysis
Loughgall
Recent form: WDDWDLLDL.
Average goals scored: 1.30 per match.
Newry City AFC
Recent form: WLWLWDDDW.
Average goals scored: 1.70 per match.
Head-to-head record
- Newry City AFC 1–1 Loughgall (16 Jul 2024)
- Newry City AFC 1–4 Loughgall (27 Apr 2024)
- Loughgall 0–0 Newry City AFC (13 Feb 2024)
- Loughgall 3–1 Newry City AFC (21 Oct 2023)
- Newry City AFC 0–3 Loughgall (05 Aug 2023)