Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Spain
Los Garres vs Cartagena LU II Prediction
Match prediction
The existing model leans toward a double chance on Los Garres or draw, with probabilities of 35% home, 35% draw and 30% away, so the advice reflects a marginal edge rather than a clear favourite. That narrow margin is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Los Garres lead on form (71.00 to 29.00) and defence (67.00 to 33.00), while attack is level at 50.00 for both sides. However, the same comparison shows Cartagena LU II ahead on head-to-head (100.00 to 0.00) and goals (100.00 to 0.00), and both Poisson values sit at 0.00, which suggests the model's goal-based inputs are not discriminating between the teams. The team analysis supports the form gap: Los Garres are unbeaten in three with a DDW sequence, whereas Cartagena LU II are winless in three with LDD, although both have drawn twice and each has one clean sheet. Los Garres' goals analysis shows a balanced 4 scored and 3 conceded across three games, with their goals coming in the 31-45 and 61-75 windows, while Cartagena LU II have scored 4 but conceded 6, including a 2-4 home defeat to Unión Molinense. The last-five records qualify the form picture, because Los Garres' sequence includes older heavy defeats such as 0-4 to Elche and a 2-0 win over Manises, while Cartagena LU II's recent run contains three losses and a 0-0 away draw at SFC Minerva. The head-to-head record is the clearest counterweight to the advice, as Cartagena LU II won 3-0 away at Los Garres in January 2022 and 4-0 at home in September 2021, giving them a 100% historical edge in this sample. With only three league fixtures played by each side and the head-to-head dating back to 2021-22, these are small samples, so the double chance on Los Garres or draw appears supported by current form and defence but tempered by the historical and goals-based evidence favouring Cartagena LU II.
- Predicted winner
- Los Garres
- Betting advice
- Double chance : Los Garres or draw
- Home win probability
- 35%
- Draw probability
- 35%
- Away win probability
- 30%
- Goals market
- —
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Los Garres | Cartagena LU II |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 71.0% | 29.0% |
| Attack | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Defence | 67.0% | 33.0% |
| Poisson | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| H2h | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Goals | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Total | 62.7% | 37.3% |
Team form and goal analysis
Los Garres
Recent form: DDW.
Average goals scored: 1.30 per match.
Cartagena LU II
Recent form: LDD.
Average goals scored: 1.30 per match.
Head-to-head record
- Los Garres 0–3 Cartagena LU II (30 Jan 2022)
- Cartagena LU II 4–0 Los Garres (25 Sep 2021)