Los Andes vs Deportivo Moron Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Deportivo Moron a 45% chance of winning and Los Andes only 10%, with the draw also at 45%, which is why the advice combines a draw-or-Moron double chance with under 3.5 goals. That asymmetry is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Moron leads form 71 to 29, attack 78 to 22, and goals 75 to 25, although defence is level at 50-50 and the Poisson and head-to-head splits are nearly even at 49-51 and 50-50 respectively. The head-to-head record offers a caution against over-reading Moron's edge, since the most recent meeting in May 2026 finished 0-0 and four of the ten listed encounters were draws, with several others decided by a single goal or a clean sheet. Los Andes' season profile is notably low-scoring and draw-heavy: 13 draws in 30 matches, only 22 goals scored at 0.70 per game, and 16 clean sheets, which helps explain why the model leans toward a tight, low-goal contest rather than a decisive away win. Their last five support that reading, producing four draws and a 3-0 loss at Colon Santa Fe, with three of those matches ending 0-0 or 1-1. Moron's form line is stronger overall, with 16 wins and only seven defeats, but their away record is far less imposing than their home record, as they have five away wins against six away losses and just two away clean sheets. Their last five show three wins, one draw and one loss, yet the defeats and wins were mostly narrow, and their 1.60 goals per game is not overwhelming. The goals analysis further qualifies the under 3.5 element: Moron have scored two or fewer goals in 28 of 30 matches and Los Andes in all 30, while neither side has exceeded 3.5 goals in any match this season. Overall, the evidence points toward a low-scoring game where Moron's superior form and attack justify favouring them to avoid defeat, but Los Andes' draw frequency and the even head-to-head and Poisson splits mean the draw component of the advice remains a meaningful part of the model's reasoning.

Predicted winner

Deportivo Moron

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : draw or Deportivo Moron and -3.5 goals

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

-3.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Deportivo Moron 0–0 Los Andes (09 May 2026)
2. Deportivo Moron 3–0 Los Andes (20 Apr 2019)
3. Los Andes 0–0 Deportivo Moron (16 Sep 2017)
4. Los Andes 0–0 Deportivo Moron (07 Oct 2014)
5. Deportivo Moron 0–1 Los Andes (19 Aug 2014)