Lorca Deportiva vs Castellonense Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Castellonense with a “win or draw” double chance and an under 3.5 goals line, reflecting probabilities of 45% draw, 45% away win and only 10% for a Lorca Deportiva victory. That split is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Castellonense dominate form (82 versus 18), attack (83 versus 17) and Poisson (73 versus 27), while defence is perfectly level at 50 apiece. The head-to-head, goals and total comparison columns are all empty or zero, so no historical or goal-based edge between these two can be read from that section. The team analysis sharpens the contrast: Lorca are winless in three with a DLD sequence, two home draws and one away defeat, whereas Castellonense have won all three (WWW) and have not failed to score in any of them. Lorca’s goal profile is thin, averaging 0.30 goals per game with just one strike in three matches, and that lone goal arrived in the 76-90 window, while they have failed to score in two of three. Castellonense average 1.70 goals per game, spread across the 0-15, 16-30, 31-45 and 76-90 bands, which supports the view that they can find a goal without the match becoming a high-scoring affair. Both defences concede at 0.70 per game, and Castellonense’s two concessions came in the 31-45 and 46-60 windows, so the under 3.5 element of the advice looks consistent with the low totals on both sides. The last-five records add a cautionary note: Lorca’s run includes three 0-1 defeats and two goalless draws, while Castellonense’s three wins are all by a single-goal margin (1-0, 2-1, 2-1), with older results including a 4-1 win and a 0-1 loss. Because the samples are only three league matches and the head-to-head section is empty, the strong form and Poisson gaps should be treated as suggestive rather than decisive, which is why the draw carries the same 45% weight as a Castellonense win.

Predicted winner

Castellonense

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : draw or Castellonense and -3.5 goals

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

-3.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

No recorded head-to-head matches are available.