Spain · Tercera División RFEF - Group 14
Llerenense vs Santa Amalia Prediction
Match prediction
- Llerenense's perfect clean-sheet record and superior form justify the home-or-draw double chance, though the model's equal 45% home and draw probabilities signal genuine uncertainty.
- Santa Amalia's attack rating exceeds Llerenense's, but their away scoring average of zero and failure to score away undercut that threat.
- Both teams' goal totals stay under 3.5 in every match, directly supporting the -3.5 goals component of the advice.
- Llerenense's head-to-head edge and three-win streak outweigh Santa Amalia's tendency to draw, reinforcing the double chance rather than a straight home win.
- Santa Amalia's unbeaten run rests on three draws, suggesting resilience that keeps the draw probability elevated despite Llerenense's stronger overall profile.
- Predicted winner
- Llerenense
- Betting advice
- Combo Double chance : Llerenense or draw and -3.5 goals
- Home win probability
- 45%
- Draw probability
- 45%
- Away win probability
- 10%
- Goals market
- -3.5
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Llerenense | Santa Amalia |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 63.0% | 38.0% |
| Attack | 38.0% | 63.0% |
| Defence | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Poisson | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| H2h | 75.0% | 25.0% |
| Goals | 63.0% | 38.0% |
| Total | 59.8% | 41.0% |
Team form and goal analysis
Llerenense
Recent form: WWWD.
Average goals scored: 0.80 per match.
Santa Amalia
Recent form: DWDD.
Average goals scored: 1.30 per match.
Head-to-head record
- Santa Amalia 1–2 Llerenense (01 Feb 2026)
- Llerenense 1–0 Santa Amalia (21 Sep 2025)
- Llerenense 1–2 Santa Amalia (11 May 2025)
- Santa Amalia 0–1 Llerenense (12 Jan 2025)