Ljutomer vs Šmartno Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward a draw or Šmartno away win, assigning 45% to each of those outcomes against only 10% for a Ljutomer victory, and the double-chance advice follows that same balance. That stance is broadly consistent with the comparison metrics, where Šmartno lead on form (67 versus 33), attack (67 versus 33) and head-to-head (100 versus 0), while Ljutomer hold only a modest edge in defence (53 versus 47). The goals data reinforce the split: Šmartno average 2.70 goals per game but concede 2.20, whereas Ljutomer score just 1.70 and concede 1.30, so the visitors carry more attacking threat alongside greater defensive risk. The last-five records sharpen this contrast, with Šmartno winning three of five including an 8-1 home rout of Podvinci but also losing 7-1 away at Čarda Martjanci, while Ljutomer have two draws and two defeats in their most recent five. Notably, Šmartno's away form is the weak point, as all three of their wins came at home and they have taken only one point from two away fixtures, which qualifies the confidence behind the away-leaning advice. Ljutomer's home record is more solid than their overall form suggests, with two wins and a draw from three home games and two clean sheets, so the 10% home probability may understate their resilience at their own ground. The head-to-head record is a small sample of two matches and therefore fragile, yet it points the same way: Šmartno won 3-2 away in April 2026 and 4-2 at home in September 2025, giving them a 100% historical edge. The Poisson metric is a stark outlier, favouring Ljutomer 97 to 3, which conflicts sharply with the form, attack, goals and head-to-head evidence and suggests the model's overall output is not driven by that single calculation. Overall, the draw-or-Šmartno advice rests on a coherent cluster of form, attacking and head-to-head signals, but it is tempered by Šmartno's poor away returns, Ljutomer's stronger home profile and the unresolved Poisson contradiction.

Predicted winner

Šmartno

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Šmartno

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Ljutomer 2–3 Šmartno (04 Apr 2026)
2. Šmartno 4–2 Ljutomer (21 Sep 2025)