Livorno vs Pianese Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Livorno via a double chance with under 3.5 goals, expressed as 45% home, 45% draw and only 10% away, so the advice is essentially a bet against a Pianese win rather than a confident home victory. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Livorno dominate form (73 vs 27), attack (71 vs 29) and Poisson (88 vs 12), yet the head-to-head split of 15 versus 85 is the one major category pointing the other way. Livorno's six-game record of three wins, two draws and one loss is built almost entirely at home, where they have won all three fixtures and scored six of their seven goals, while their away form shows no wins, two draws, one loss and just one goal. Pianese, by contrast, are winless in six with three draws and three defeats, and their attacking output is starkly limited: two goals in six matches, an average of 0.30 per game, with four failures to score. Their defensive numbers are more respectable, conceding only one goal at home across three matches, but all five away goals against came on the road, which is where this fixture places them. The goals analysis supports the under 3.5 element, since neither side has seen a match exceed 3.5 goals in six attempts, and Livorno's own games have stayed under 2.5 in five of six. The last-five records add texture rather than contradiction: Livorno's sequence includes a 3-2 home win over Vado, a 1-0 home win over Atalanta II and a 0-0 draw at Novara, while Pianese's five games produced three 0-0 or 1-1 draws and two away defeats. The head-to-head record is the clearest counterweight, with Pianese winning the most recent meeting 2-1 at Livorno in February 2026 and also winning 2-1 at home in October 2025, though the older Serie D meetings were mostly draws or Pianese home wins. Taken together, the evidence suggests Livorno's home strength and Pianese's scoring drought justify avoiding an away win and expecting few goals, but the recent head-to-head results and Livorno's modest away output mean the 45% draw probability is a genuine possibility rather than a formality.

Predicted winner

Livorno

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : Livorno or draw and -3.5 goals

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

-3.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Livorno 1–2 Pianese (15 Feb 2026)
2. Pianese 2–1 Livorno (03 Oct 2025)
3. Livorno 1–1 Pianese (10 Mar 2024)
4. Pianese 1–1 Livorno (15 Nov 2023)
5. Pianese 3–1 Livorno (14 May 2023)