Liverpool Montevideo vs Progreso Prediction
· Estadio Belvedere
Match prediction
- The model's 45% home win and 45% draw probabilities justify double chance despite Progreso's superior recent form.
- Progreso's better form and attack ratings conflict with Liverpool's stronger Poisson and head-to-head edges, so the draw probability remains elevated.
- Liverpool's 14 clean sheets and Progreso's 13 failed-to-score matches support a low-scoring contest that could easily end level.
- Progreso's five-match losing streak within their longer form string shows volatility, weakening the case for an away win.
- Identical 50% defence ratings suggest neither side dominates defensively, reinforcing the draw as a genuine alternative to a home win.
- Liverpool's 71% head-to-head edge and home advantage at Estadio Belvedere anchor the double chance recommendation.
- Predicted winner
- Liverpool Montevideo
- Betting advice
- Double chance : Liverpool Montevideo or draw
- Home win probability
- 45%
- Draw probability
- 45%
- Away win probability
- 10%
- Goals market
- —
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Liverpool Montevideo | Progreso |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| Attack | 42.0% | 58.0% |
| Defence | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Poisson | 67.0% | 33.0% |
| H2h | 71.0% | 29.0% |
| Goals | 61.0% | 39.0% |
| Total | 55.2% | 44.8% |
Team form and goal analysis
Liverpool Montevideo
Recent form: WLDWWDLDDLWLDWLLDWDLWDWWWDWLDW.
Average goals scored: 1.30 per match.
Progreso
Recent form: LLLDDWLDDLLWLLLLLWLLWLLLLWWLWW.
Average goals scored: 0.80 per match.
Head-to-head record
- Progreso 3–3 Liverpool Montevideo (31 Mar 2026)
- Liverpool Montevideo 3–1 Progreso (26 Oct 2025)
- Progreso 0–2 Liverpool Montevideo (27 Apr 2025)
- Liverpool Montevideo 2–1 Progreso (03 Nov 2024)
- Progreso 2–1 Liverpool Montevideo (28 Apr 2024)