Sweden · Division 2 - Södra Götaland
Lilla Torg vs Nosaby Prediction
Lilla Torg vs 
Nosaby
Match prediction
- The model gives Lilla Torg and the draw equal 45% shares, leaving Nosaby at just 10%, which directly supports the double-chance advice.
- Lilla Torg's superior form, attack and Poisson ratings outweigh Nosaby's better win total, explaining why the home side is favoured despite fewer victories.
- Nosaby's away record of five defeats and 2.20 goals conceded per away game is the clearest weakness behind the low 10% away probability.
- The only head-to-head meeting ended 3-3, a small sample that supports the draw component of the double chance rather than a decisive home edge.
- Both teams' goal totals are modest and their defensive records are similar, so the model's caution against a straight home win is reasonable.
- Lilla Torg's recent form includes three draws in five, reinforcing why the draw carries equal weight to a home victory in the advice.
- Predicted winner
- Lilla Torg
- Betting advice
- Double chance : Lilla Torg or draw
- Home win probability
- 45%
- Draw probability
- 45%
- Away win probability
- 10%
- Goals market
- —
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Lilla Torg | Nosaby |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 56.0% | 44.0% |
| Attack | 63.0% | 37.0% |
| Defence | 47.0% | 53.0% |
| Poisson | 55.0% | 45.0% |
| H2h | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Goals | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Total | 53.5% | 46.5% |
Team form and goal analysis
Lilla Torg
Recent form: LLDWLDDWWDLDDWLDLLWWDDD.
Average goals scored: 1.30 per match.
Nosaby
Recent form: WDDDWWLWLDWLDLWWLWLWLDW.
Average goals scored: 1.80 per match.
Head-to-head record
- Nosaby 3–3 Lilla Torg (17 Jun 2026)