Leon vs Villa Valle Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model output gives Leon a 45% home win and 45% draw probability against Villa Valle’s 10%, framing the “Leon or draw” double chance as the advised position. That advice is broadly consistent with the comparison metrics, where Leon leads on form (67 versus 33), attack (60 versus 40), defence (56 versus 44) and Poisson (70 versus 30), though the head-to-head and goals splits run the other way at 9 versus 91 and 18 versus 82 respectively. The overall totals are far closer, with Leon at 46.70 and Villa Valle at 53.30, which suggests the model’s confidence rests on current-season indicators rather than historical scoring patterns. Leon’s four-match record of one win and three draws, including a 2-0 home win over Brusaporto and 1-1 draws with Piacenza and Caldiero Terme, shows a side that is hard to beat but rarely dominant. Villa Valle’s matching four-match record of three draws and one loss, with a 1-2 home defeat to Milan II and a 0-0 draw against Virtus Ciserano Bergamo, points to a team that competes but struggles to convert that into wins. The goals analysis reinforces this: Leon averages 1.50 scored and only 1.00 conceded, while Villa Valle averages 1.00 scored and 1.30 conceded, and both teams have stayed under 2.5 goals in all four matches. Leon’s defensive record is notably stronger at home, conceding just 0.50 per game there versus 1.50 away, whereas Villa Valle have scored only 0.50 per home game but 1.50 per away game, a split that could complicate a straightforward home read. The head-to-head record is the clearest counterweight, with Villa Valle winning three of the four meetings, including a 5-0 rout in 2022 and a 2-1 win at Leon Arena in March 2026, so the 91% h2h weighting against Leon is not merely noise. Because the last-five samples are small and include older fixtures from May 2026, the form and Poisson advantages should be treated as suggestive rather than decisive, and the draw-heavy profiles of both teams make the 45% draw probability a meaningful part of the double-chance case.

Predicted winner

Leon

Betting advice

Double chance : Leon or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Leon 1–2 Villa Valle (01 Mar 2026)
2. Villa Valle 1–0 Leon (26 Oct 2025)
3. Villa Valle 5–0 Leon (03 Apr 2022)
4. Leon 1–1 Villa Valle (21 Nov 2021)