Leioa vs Eibar III Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward a double chance on Leioa or draw, with probabilities of 35% home, 35% draw and 30% away, so the advice reflects a marginal rather than decisive edge. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Eibar III rates higher on form (63 versus 38) and defence (63 versus 38), while the attack scores are level at 50 and the Poisson split of 42 to 58 also favours the visitors. Leioa's counterweight comes almost entirely from the head-to-head (91 versus 9) and goals (77 versus 23) comparisons, plus a narrower total edge of 56 to 44.30, which suggests the model is weighting historical dominance against current form rather than treating them as equally reliable. The team analysis shows why form is mixed: Leioa have drawn all three league games (DDD) without a win or defeat, while Eibar III are unbeaten too but with a win and two draws (DDW), including a 3-1 home victory. Both sides have scored in every match and neither has kept a clean sheet, so the draw component of the advice looks plausible even though Eibar III carry the better recent results. Leioa's goals profile is lopsided, with four of five goals coming in the 31-45 window and an average of 2.00 conceded away versus 1.00 at home, while Eibar III spread their five goals across four different periods and concede at a steady 1.00 per game. The last-five records add a note of caution about Leioa, since they include a 0-5 loss to Bergantiños and a 0-11 defeat to Athletic Club alongside three draws, whereas Eibar III's five include three wins, two draws and a 3-0 success over Pasaia KE. The head-to-head record is the strongest single argument for the advice, as Leioa won 3-0 at home in January 2025 and 5-2 away in May 2025, with the two most recent meetings in 2025-26 ending 1-1 and 0-1 to Leioa. Overall, the evidence supports a low-confidence double chance rather than a clear home win, because Leioa's head-to-head and goals edge is offset by Eibar III's superior form, defence and Poisson rating, and the small three-game samples limit how much any of these trends should be trusted.

Predicted winner

Leioa

Betting advice

Double chance : Leioa or draw

Home win probability

35%

Draw probability

35%

Away win probability

30%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Leioa 1–1 Eibar III (07 Mar 2026)
2. Eibar III 0–1 Leioa (26 Oct 2025)
3. Eibar III 2–5 Leioa (10 May 2025)
4. Leioa 3–0 Eibar III (12 Jan 2025)