Legião vs GREVAL Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward a Legião win-or-draw outcome, assigning 45% to a home win and 45% to a draw against only 10% for GREVAL, so the advice of a double chance on Legião or draw reflects a fixture the model sees as heavily one-sided in Legião's favour. That framing is supported by the comparison metrics, where Legião holds a 100.00 head-to-head score and a 100.00 goals score against GREVAL's 0.00, and a 52.30 to 47.70 edge in the total metric, even though the two sides are level on form at 50.00 each. The Poisson values of 0.00 for both teams are a notable gap in the evidence, offering no independent goal expectation to reinforce or challenge the probabilities, so the case rests mainly on the other comparison fields. GREVAL's attack score of 73.00 against Legião's 27.00 is the clearest counterweight, suggesting GREVAL carries the sharper attacking profile, while Legião's defence score of 80.00 against GREVAL's 20.00 indicates Legião is far the stronger defensive unit. The goals analysis complicates the picture further: GREVAL has scored 8 goals in 4 matches at 2.00 per game, including a 6-0 away win over Luziânia, whereas Legião has managed only 3 goals in 3 matches at 1.00 per game and has failed to score at home. Legião's defensive record is the more reliable trend, with 2 clean sheets in 3 matches and just 1 goal conceded at 0.30 per game, while GREVAL's 4 goals conceded at 1.00 per game and single clean sheet show a less settled back line. The last-five records show Legião unbeaten in its three 2026 fixtures with a win and two draws, though its two most recent listed matches from 2025 were defeats, and GREVAL's recent form is volatile with a 6-0 win, a 0-2 home loss, two draws and a 0-5 loss. The head-to-head record is the strongest single piece of evidence for the prediction, but it is also the thinnest sample: a single 2024 meeting in which Legião won 6-0 away at GREVAL, which explains the 100.00 to 0.00 split but cannot be treated as a stable pattern. Overall, the defensive solidity, the head-to-head result and the model's probabilities align behind the Legião-or-draw advice, yet GREVAL's superior attacking output and the absence of Poisson support mean the 10% away probability may understate the uncertainty in a small-sample fixture.

Predicted winner

Legião

Betting advice

Double chance : Legião or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. GREVAL 0–6 Legião (15 Sep 2024)