Lealtad vs Llanes Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward a Lealtad win or draw, with home and draw probabilities both at 45% against only 10% for a Llanes away win, and the comparison metrics broadly reinforce that tilt through form (75 versus 25), defence (77 versus 23), Poisson (60 versus 40), head-to-head (62 versus 38) and the overall total (58.7 versus 41.3). That support is not uniform, however, since Llanes actually lead the attack comparison 67 to 33 and the goals comparison 55 to 45, meaning the away side's edge is concentrated in scoring output rather than results. The team analysis helps explain this split: Lealtad's WLL form over three matches includes a 1-0 away win at L'Entregu and a clean sheet on the road, but also a 1-2 home loss to Praviano and a 0-1 defeat at Sporting Gijón II, leaving them with two goals scored and three conceded. Llanes' LLD record is winless across three games, with a 2-2 home draw against Gijón Industrial standing out against heavier defeats of 1-5 to Mosconia and 3-1 at Sporting Gijón II, and their goals analysis shows four scored but ten conceded, an average of 3.3 against per match. The goals detail sharpens the contrast: Lealtad have scored both their goals after the 60th minute and conceded evenly across the early, middle and later phases, while Llanes have scored 75% of their goals in the 76-90 window yet shipped half of their ten concessions between the 46th and 60th minutes. The last-five records extend the picture beyond the current three-game sample, with Lealtad adding a 1-2 loss at Salamanca UDS and a 2-2 home draw with Coruxo, while Llanes' additional entries are a 0-1 home loss to Sporting Gijón II and a 2-3 home defeat to Langreo, so both sides arrive with inconsistent recent results. The head-to-head record is genuinely mixed and cautions against reading the 62-38 split as dominance: Llanes won 1-0 away in January 2024 and 3-0 at home in April 2023, Lealtad won 2-1 at home in September 2023 and 2-1 at home in November 2019, and three meetings were drawn, including two 1-1 results and a 0-0. Overall, the double-chance advice on Lealtad or draw looks reasonably grounded in form, defence and the aggregate comparison, but the modest three-match samples, Llanes' superior attacking and goals numbers, and the alternating head-to-head pattern mean the 45% draw share is doing much of the work and the outcome should be treated as uncertain rather than settled.

Predicted winner

Lealtad

Betting advice

Double chance : Lealtad or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Llanes 0–1 Lealtad (28 Jan 2024)
2. Lealtad 2–1 Llanes (10 Sep 2023)
3. Llanes 3–0 Lealtad (02 Apr 2023)
4. Lealtad 1–1 Llanes (04 Dec 2022)
5. Lealtad 1–1 Llanes (06 Mar 2022)