Larisa vs PAOK II Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model output gives Larisa a 50% home win and 50% draw chance, with PAOK II at 0%, framing the advice as a double chance on Larisa or draw rather than an outright win. That caution is consistent with the comparison metrics, where Larisa leads on form (64.00 vs 36.00), attack (67.00 vs 33.00), defence (80.00 vs 20.00), goals (71.00 vs 29.00) and total (70.50 vs 29.50), while the Poisson and head-to-head splits are maximal at 100.00 versus 0.00 in Larisa's favour. The team analysis supports the same direction but on a small sample: Larisa are unbeaten in three with two wins and a draw, scoring six and conceding just once, whereas PAOK II have one win, one draw and one loss, scoring three and conceding four. Larisa's goals profile is notably two-sided, averaging 2.00 scored and only 0.30 conceded, with their goals spread across several intervals and their sole concession arriving in the 46-60 window, which suggests a relatively controlled defensive record. PAOK II's numbers are thinner and more volatile, with 1.00 scored and 1.30 conceded per game, no clean sheets, and a failure to score in one of three matches, so their away threat looks limited given they have scored zero goals on the road. The last-five records add a qualification: Larisa's sequence includes a 4-0 away win at Pyrgos 1968 but also a 0-4 home loss to Olympiakos Piraeus, while PAOK II's recent form mixes a 2-1 home win over Nestos Chrisoupolis with a 0-2 away defeat at Panthrakikos, so both sides carry recent volatility that the aggregate metrics smooth over. The head-to-head record is the strongest single counterweight to a straightforward Larisa win, since the ten meetings include Larisa home wins in 2025 and 2023 but also PAOK II away victories in 2024 and 2022, plus a 0-0 draw, showing this fixture has not been one-sided. Overall, the evidence jointly supports the existing double-chance advice because Larisa's defensive solidity and superior attacking output reduce the likelihood of defeat, but the 50% draw component and the mixed head-to-head history mean the draw cannot be dismissed, and the small three-match samples for both teams limit how firmly these trends should be read.

Predicted winner

Larisa

Betting advice

Double chance : Larisa or draw

Home win probability

50%

Draw probability

50%

Away win probability

0%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Larisa 2–1 PAOK II (25 Jan 2025)
2. PAOK II 0–1 Larisa (09 Nov 2024)
3. PAOK II 1–2 Larisa (21 Feb 2024)
4. Larisa 2–0 PAOK II (11 Nov 2023)
5. Larisa 3–2 PAOK II (31 Mar 2023)