Lanzarote vs San Bartolomé Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives San Bartolomé a “win or draw” double chance, with the probabilities split evenly between a draw and an away win at 45% each and only a 10% chance for a Lanzarote victory. That stance is broadly consistent with the comparison metrics, where San Bartolomé lead form 75 to 25, attack 71 to 29, and the Poisson measure 100 to 0, although the head-to-head and goals metrics lean the other way at 75 to 25 and 70 to 30 in Lanzarote’s favour. The defensive comparison is the one genuinely neutral signal, sitting at 50–50, which helps explain why the model stops short of backing San Bartolomé to win outright and instead protects the draw. Both teams’ performance data come from only two fixtures, so the form lines are thin: Lanzarote have drawn both games (DD) without scoring more than once, while San Bartolomé have won both (WW), including a 4-2 home win and a 0-1 away victory with one clean sheet. The goals analysis reinforces that contrast, with San Bartolomé averaging 2.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded, against Lanzarote’s 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded, though Lanzarote’s two goals against both arrived in the 0–15 window and their two goals for came in the 46–75 range. The last-five records extend the picture beyond the current season: Lanzarote’s five matches are all draws, including a 1-1 away draw at San Bartolomé, whereas San Bartolomé’s five show three wins and two draws, with the two draws both 0-0 or 1-1 and the wins including a 1-0 away result. The head-to-head record is the clearest counterweight to the advice, since Lanzarote won 3-0 at home in January 2026 and 2-0 in September 2023, while San Bartolomé’s only win in the six meetings was a 2-1 away result in February 2024 and the other three were draws. Taken together, the model appears to weight recent form, attack, and the Poisson projection more heavily than the historical head-to-head and goals trends, but the small sample sizes and the 45% draw probability mean the double chance is a cautious hedge rather than a confident call.

Predicted winner

San Bartolomé

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or San Bartolomé

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

—

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. San Bartolomé 1–1 Lanzarote (03 May 2026)
2. Lanzarote 3–0 San Bartolomé (04 Jan 2026)
3. San Bartolomé 1–1 Lanzarote (01 Feb 2025)
4. Lanzarote 0–0 San Bartolomé (22 Sep 2024)
5. San Bartolomé 1–2 Lanzarote (10 Feb 2024)