Lancy vs Coffrane Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Lancy a 45% home win and 45% draw probability against Coffrane's 10%, framing the advice as a double chance on Lancy or draw rather than an outright home win. That caution is echoed by the comparison metrics, where Lancy leads on form (67 vs 33), attack (70 vs 30), defence (33 vs 67), head-to-head (75 vs 25) and goals (70 vs 30), yet the Poisson split is nearly level at 49 vs 51, suggesting the goal-based model sees a much tighter contest than the categorical indicators. The overall totals lean toward Lancy at 60.70 versus 39.30, but that edge is far from the dominance implied by the individual form and attack gaps. Lancy's seven-game record of two wins, one draw and four defeats, including a 2-0 home win as their biggest victory and a 2-4 home loss, shows a side that can win at home but has also been beaten heavily there. Coffrane are winless in seven with three draws and four losses, and their two home blanks in failed-to-score terms underline an attack averaging just 0.90 goals per game against Lancy's 1.40. Defensively the picture is less one-sided than the comparison suggests: Lancy concede 2.10 per game overall, while Coffrane concede 1.40, so the home side's defensive advantage in the metrics is not reflected in raw goals conceded. The last-five records reinforce the inconsistency, with Lancy losing three of five (1-3, 2-4, 1-3) around a 2-1 win and a 1-1 draw, while Coffrane's five produced three defeats and two 1-1 draws, including two 0-1 home losses. The head-to-head is genuinely mixed across four meetings, with Lancy winning 3-1 away and 2-0 at home but also losing 1-2 at home and 0-1 away, so the 75-25 head-to-head split may overstate a small and alternating sample. Taken together, the evidence supports Lancy as the more likely side to avoid defeat, but the near-even Poisson output, Coffrane's better defensive concession rate and the alternating head-to-head results mean the draw component of the double chance carries real weight rather than being a formality.

Predicted winner

Lancy

Betting advice

Double chance : Lancy or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Coffrane 1–3 Lancy (30 May 2026)
2. Lancy 2–0 Coffrane (22 Nov 2025)
3. Lancy 1–2 Coffrane (03 May 2025)
4. Coffrane 0–1 Lancy (27 Oct 2024)