England · Non League Premier - Northern
Lancaster City vs Ilkeston Town Prediction
Match prediction
- Lancaster's far stronger recent form and superior attack and defence ratings justify favouring them, though the modest home win probability keeps the draw firmly in play.
- Ilkeston's five straight defeats and heavy away losses suggest they are unlikely to win, supporting the double chance rather than a straight home bet.
- Lancaster's own inconsistent form, including three recent losses, explains why the model splits home and draw evenly instead of backing a clear home victory.
- Both sides concede most often after halftime, so the goals data hints at a tighter, lower-scoring contest than the head-to-head record implies.
- Head-to-head results are strongly home-dominated, but Lancaster's mixed home record this season tempers that pattern's reliability.
- Ilkeston's low scoring output and frequent failures to score make an away win the least likely outcome, reinforcing the cautious double chance advice.
- Predicted winner
- Lancaster City
- Betting advice
- Double chance : Lancaster City or draw
- Home win probability
- 45%
- Draw probability
- 45%
- Away win probability
- 10%
- Goals market
- —
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Lancaster City | Ilkeston Town |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 90.0% | 10.0% |
| Attack | 71.0% | 29.0% |
| Defence | 67.0% | 33.0% |
| Poisson | 59.0% | 41.0% |
| H2h | 60.0% | 40.0% |
| Goals | 43.0% | 57.0% |
| Total | 65.0% | 35.0% |
Team form and goal analysis
Lancaster City
Recent form: LWLLDWWLLW.
Average goals scored: 1.10 per match.
Ilkeston Town
Recent form: WWLLLDLLLL.
Average goals scored: 0.60 per match.
Head-to-head record
- Ilkeston Town 3–0 Lancaster City (17 Jan 2026)
- Lancaster City 3–1 Ilkeston Town (13 Sep 2025)
- Ilkeston Town 4–0 Lancaster City (15 Mar 2025)
- Lancaster City 4–3 Ilkeston Town (09 Nov 2024)
- Ilkeston Town 2–3 Lancaster City (10 Feb 2024)