L'Aquila vs Teramo Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives L'Aquila a 45% home win and 45% draw against Teramo, leaving only 10% for an away win, so the double-chance advice on L'Aquila or draw reflects a combined 90% probability rather than a strong single-outcome lean. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Teramo lead on form (56 vs 44), attack (61 vs 39) and goals (56 vs 44), while L'Aquila's clear edge comes on defence (71 vs 29) and an extreme Poisson split of 100 to 0. The head-to-head comparison is perfectly balanced at 50-50, and the total metric is nearly level at 49.60 versus 50.40, which together suggest the model sees the sides as closely matched despite the lopsided probability distribution. L'Aquila's four-match record of WWDD with two wins, two draws and no defeats is built on defensive solidity, including three clean sheets and a 0-4 away win at Fossombrone, but they have failed to score once and average only 1.80 goals per game. Teramo's WDWW is slightly more productive with three wins and one draw, no defeats and no failures to score, yet their 2.80 goals-per-game average is offset by a leakier defence that has conceded in three of four matches and kept only one clean sheet. The goals analysis sharpens this contrast: L'Aquila have scored seven goals but five of them arrived in the 76-90 window, while Teramo's eleven goals are spread across the match and their five concessions came entirely after the 46th minute, hinting at late-game volatility on both sides. The last-five records broadly confirm the same pattern, with L'Aquila drawing 2-2 at Ancona and 0-0 at home to Atletico Ascoli alongside two wins, while Teramo won 3-2, 3-1 and 3-0 but were held 2-2 by Notaresco. The head-to-head record is the most direct counterweight to the home-favouring advice, since Teramo won 3-1 at L'Aquila in March 2026 and 2-0 at home in December 2024, while L'Aquila's wins came 3-2 at home in May 2025 and 5-2 for Teramo in November 2025, leaving no consistent home advantage across four meetings. Overall, the defensive and Poisson evidence supports the existing double-chance call, but the attacking form, goal output and recent head-to-head results qualify it enough that the draw component looks at least as plausible as the home win.

Predicted winner

L'Aquila

Betting advice

Double chance : L'Aquila or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

—

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. L'Aquila 1–3 Teramo (22 Mar 2026)
2. Teramo 5–2 L'Aquila (09 Nov 2025)
3. L'Aquila 3–2 Teramo (04 May 2025)
4. Teramo 0–2 L'Aquila (22 Dec 2024)