KuPS W vs HJK W Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives KuPS W a 35% home win probability and the same 35% draw probability, leaving HJK W at 30%, which is why the published advice is a double chance on KuPS W or draw rather than a single winner. That narrow edge is not fully echoed by the comparison metrics, where HJK W lead attack 70 to 30 and Poisson 60 to 40, while KuPS W counter with a much stronger defence score of 89 against 11 and a form score of 57 against 43. The goals data sharpen this tension: HJK W average 2.90 goals scored per game and concede only 0.90, whereas KuPS W average 2.00 scored and 1.30 conceded, so the away side's attacking and defensive goal numbers look superior even though the model still leans toward the home double chance. KuPS W's 20-match record of 13 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses, including 6 home wins and 7 away wins, shows a genuinely strong side whose six clean sheets and only three failures to score support the defensive comparison score. HJK W's record is more dominant in raw results, with 17 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 20, an 11-match winning streak, eight clean sheets and just one failure to score, which explains their high attack and Poisson ratings but also raises the question of why the model does not favour them outright. The last-five records add a conflicting signal: KuPS W are unbeaten with three wins and a draw, including a 1-0 away win at HJK W on 17 August 2026, while HJK W have four wins but also a 0-2 home loss to Brann W on 23 September 2026. The head-to-head record is similarly mixed, with HJK W winning four of the last ten meetings, KuPS W winning five and one draw, and the most recent three producing a 1-0 KuPS W away win, a 2-0 HJK W home win and a 2-1 KuPS W home win. The goals distribution suggests HJK W are more likely to score heavily, having gone over 2.5 goals in 11 of 20 matches and over 1.5 in 16, while KuPS W stayed under 2.5 in 16 of 20, which could keep the match tight and make the draw component of the double chance meaningful. Overall, the double chance on KuPS W or draw appears to rest on their defensive solidity, recent unbeaten form and home advantage, but it is qualified by HJK W's superior attacking output, stronger overall win record and higher Poisson rating, so the 35-35-30 split reflects a genuinely close and uncertain fixture rather than a clear edge.

Predicted winner

KuPS W

Betting advice

Double chance : KuPS W or draw

Home win probability

35%

Draw probability

35%

Away win probability

30%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. HJK W 0–1 KuPS W (17 Aug 2026)
2. HJK W 2–0 KuPS W (04 Jul 2026)
3. KuPS W 2–1 HJK W (02 May 2026)
4. HJK W 3–2 KuPS W (12 Oct 2025)
5. KuPS W 1–0 HJK W (15 Aug 2025)