Kumla vs Lidköping Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Lidköping a 45% win probability and Kumla only 10%, with the draw also at 45%, so the advice of a draw-or-Lidköping double chance reflects a fixture where the away side is favoured but a level outcome is equally plausible. That caution is supported by the comparison metrics, where Lidköping leads form 85 to 15, attack 73 to 27 and defence 71 to 29, yet the Poisson estimate is nearly even at 53 to 47 and the head-to-head and goals splits actually lean toward Kumla at 71 to 29 and 62 to 38 respectively. The total column, however, tilts back to Lidköping at 57.20 to 42.80, suggesting the aggregate picture is genuinely mixed rather than one-sided. Both teams have played 22 matches, and their season records are strikingly similar: Kumla have six wins, six draws and ten defeats, while Lidköping have five wins, seven draws and ten defeats, which helps explain why the draw carries such a high probability. Kumla's goal profile is the more open of the two, averaging 1.30 scored and 1.90 conceded per game, whereas Lidköping average just 1.00 scored and 1.80 conceded, and Lidköping's away defensive record is notably poor at 2.40 goals against per away match. The last-five records sharpen the contrast: Lidköping arrive with three wins and two draws, including a 5-2 home win over Vänersborgs IF, while Kumla have two goalless draws but also heavy defeats of 1-7 at Ahlafors and 2-6 at home to Husqvarna. That recent form gap is the strongest single argument for the away side, though the small sample of five matches means it should not be treated as decisive. The head-to-head record offers a counterweight, since Kumla won the most recent meeting 2-1 away in April 2026 and have three wins and three draws across the last ten encounters, with Lidköping winning four. Overall, the evidence supports the existing double-chance advice as a hedge: Lidköping's form and Kumla's defensive fragility point one way, but the even Poisson split, the high draw probability and Kumla's head-to-head edge mean the draw leg remains a meaningful part of the prediction rather than a formality.

Predicted winner

Lidköping

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Lidköping

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Lidköping 1–2 Kumla (10 Apr 2026)
2. Kumla 0–0 Lidköping (15 Aug 2025)
3. Lidköping 1–0 Kumla (18 Apr 2025)
4. Lidköping 1–3 Kumla (06 Oct 2024)
5. Kumla 3–2 Lidköping (20 Jun 2024)