Krylya Sovetov II vs Khimik Dzerzhinsk Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Khimik Dzerzhinsk with a double-chance draw-or-away advice, assigning 45% to the draw and 45% to an away win while leaving only 10% to a home victory. That split is consistent with the comparison metrics, where Khimik dominates form (69 versus 31), attack (58 versus 42), defence (60 versus 40), Poisson (81 versus 19), head-to-head (91 versus 9), goals (83 versus 17) and total (73.7 versus 26.3). The season records reinforce the gap: Khimik have 21 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 26 matches with a 2.50 goals-per-game average and only 0.70 conceded, whereas Krylya Sovetov II sit on 7 wins, 9 draws and 10 losses, scoring 1.10 and conceding 1.20 per game. Krylya's goal profile is notably low-event, with 23 of 26 matches under 2.5 total goals and 10 failures to score, which helps explain why the model still reserves a substantial 45% draw probability rather than a clear away win. Khimik's attacking spread is broad across the match, though their defensive record shows a concentration of goals conceded late (52.63% in the 76-90 window), a vulnerability that could keep the home side in the contest. The last-five records qualify the headline form: Krylya have lost three of five (including 1-2 to Dinamo Barnaul and 0-2 at Akron II) with one win and one draw, while Khimik have won three, lost two, and notably lost 1-2 at home to Akron II in their most recent outing. The head-to-head record is mixed rather than one-sided, with Khimik winning 2-1 at home in April 2026 and 1-0 in July 2025, Krylya winning 2-0 at home in June 2026, and a 0-0 draw in April 2025, so the 91-9 head-to-head comparison reflects a broader trend than these four meetings alone. Overall, the evidence jointly supports the draw-or-Khimik advice through Khimik's superior season-long output and Krylya's scoring limitations, but the recent Khimik defeat, their late-conceding pattern, and the low-scoring nature of Krylya's matches suggest the draw component carries real weight rather than being a formality.

Predicted winner

Khimik Dzerzhinsk

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Khimik Dzerzhinsk

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Krylya Sovetov II 0–2 Khimik Dzerzhinsk (21 Jun 2026)
2. Khimik Dzerzhinsk 2–1 Krylya Sovetov II (19 Apr 2026)
3. Khimik Dzerzhinsk 1–0 Krylya Sovetov II (27 Jul 2025)
4. Krylya Sovetov II 0–0 Khimik Dzerzhinsk (20 Apr 2025)