Krieschow vs Budissa Bautzen Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Budissa Bautzen a 45% win probability and Krieschow only 10%, with the draw also at 45%, which is why the advice is a double chance on draw or Budissa Bautzen rather than a straight away win. That caution is consistent with the comparison metrics, where Budissa Bautzen leads on form (63 versus 38), attack (64 versus 36), defence (56 versus 44), Poisson (85 versus 15), head-to-head (93 versus 7), goals (65 versus 35) and total (71 versus 29.2), so the away side is favoured across every available dimension. Krieschow's team analysis shows a four-match losing streak within a LLLLW record, no clean sheets in five matches, and heavy defeats such as 1-5 at home and 5-0 away, while their goals analysis shows just four goals scored but fifteen conceded, an average of 3.00 against per game. Budissa Bautzen's LDLDW record is less dominant than the comparison scores imply, yet their away profile is notably steadier, with two draws and no defeats on the road, one away clean sheet, and only two goals conceded away compared with ten at home. The last-five records reinforce that contrast: Krieschow's only win was a 2-1 trip to Plauen, but they also lost 0-9 to FSV Mainz 05 and 0-5 to Germania Halberstadt, whereas Budissa Bautzen beat Empor Glauchau 3-2, drew 2-2 away at Einheit Wernigerode and 0-0 away at Einheit Rudolstadt, and lost 0-3 and 2-5 at home. The head-to-head record is the strongest single signal for the advice, since Budissa Bautzen won the most recent meeting 3-0 at Krieschow and have won three of the last four completed encounters, including a 3-2 victory at Krieschow in March 2025. However, the same head-to-head series also shows Krieschow winning 2-0 at home in February 2024 and 4-1 at home in December 2022, so the venue has not been reliably kind to the visitors over a longer sample. The draw probability of 45% is best explained by Budissa Bautzen's tendency to share points away and by Krieschow's inability to keep clean sheets, which keeps a home result plausible even though their form and goal numbers are poor. Overall, the evidence supports the existing double-chance advice as a way of covering the draw while leaning toward Budissa Bautzen, but the small five-match samples and Krieschow's occasional home wins mean this should be treated as an uncertain lean rather than a confident outcome.

Predicted winner

Budissa Bautzen

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Budissa Bautzen

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Krieschow 0–3 Budissa Bautzen (04 Apr 2026)
2. Budissa Bautzen 2–0 Krieschow (02 Oct 2025)
3. Krieschow 2–3 Budissa Bautzen (16 Mar 2025)
4. Budissa Bautzen 3–3 Krieschow (20 Sep 2024)
5. Budissa Bautzen 4–3 Krieschow (08 Jun 2024)