Kozara Gradiška vs Sutjeska Foča Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Kozara Gradiške a 45% home win and 45% draw against Sutjeska Foča, leaving only 10% for an away win, and its advice combines a Kozara win-or-draw double chance with under 3.5 goals. That stance is broadly reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Kozara leads on form (67 vs 33), attack (67 vs 33), defence (70 vs 30), Poisson (94 vs 6), head-to-head (62 vs 38), goals (58 vs 42) and overall total (69.7 vs 30.3), although the head-to-head and goals gaps are noticeably narrower than the Poisson split implies. Kozara's season record of three wins, three draws and one loss, with five clean sheets and no home defeats, supports the double-chance side, while Sutjeska's two wins, one draw and four losses, including four away defeats, explain why the away probability is so low. The goals analysis points the same direction: Kozara averages 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per match, and Sutjeska just 0.60 scored and 1.30 conceded, with neither side exceeding 3.5 goals in any of their seven matches, which is consistent with the under 3.5 selection. Kozara's last five (draws with Slavija and Majevica, wins over Velež Nevesinje and Romanija Pale, and a 3-0 loss at Leotar) show a low-scoring but resilient pattern, whereas Sutjeska's last five (a win over Omarska, a draw with Drina Zvornik and losses to Rudar Prijedor, Leotar and Laktaši) reveal a side that struggles badly on the road. The head-to-head record is more balanced than the aggregate metrics suggest, with Kozara winning four, Sutjeska winning three and three draws across ten meetings, and Sutjeska even won the most recent encounter 1-0 in April 2026, so the 62-38 head-to-head split should be treated as a modest edge rather than a decisive one. A further qualification is that Sutjeska's away goals-against average of 2.30 and their 4-1 defeat at Laktaši show they can concede heavily, which could threaten the under 3.5 component even if the double chance holds. Overall, the evidence coheres around a low-scoring match in which Kozara is the more likely side to avoid defeat, but the small seven-match samples, the recent Sutjeska win and the possibility of an away collapse mean the existing advice should be read as a plausible lean rather than a certainty.

Predicted winner

Kozara Gradiška

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : Kozara Gradiška or draw and -3.5 goals

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

-3.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Sutjeska Foča 0–1 Kozara Gradiška (05 Apr 2026)
2. Kozara Gradiška 1–1 Sutjeska Foča (04 Oct 2025)
3. Sutjeska Foča 2–0 Kozara Gradiška (02 Apr 2025)
4. Kozara Gradiška 1–1 Sutjeska Foča (07 Sep 2024)
5. Kozara Gradiška 4–1 Sutjeska Foča (02 Mar 2024)