Kostinbrod vs Balkan Botevgrad Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Kostinbrod a 45% home win and 45% draw against Balkan Botevgrad, leaving only 10% for an away win, which is why the advice combines a Kostinbrod-or-draw double chance with under 3.5 goals. That split between win and draw is important, because the comparison metrics lean heavily toward the home side overall (form 63 versus 37, attack 67 versus 33, Poisson 83 versus 17, head-to-head 62 versus 38, and total 63 versus 37), yet the goals comparison is the one clear exception, with the away side slightly ahead at 53 versus 47. The team records help explain that tension: Kostinbrod have 5 wins and 3 losses from 8 with no draws, while Balkan Botevgrad have 3 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses, so the draw probability is not strongly supported by either side's season pattern. Kostinbrod's scoring profile is modest but steady at 1.40 goals per game with 11 scored and 8 conceded, whereas Balkan Botevgrad average only 0.80 goals per game and have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches, which supports the low-scoring half of the advice. The under 3.5 element is further reinforced by both teams' goal distributions, as Kostinbrod have stayed under 3.5 in all 8 matches and Balkan Botevgrad have done the same, while neither side has exceeded 2.5 goals in more than a couple of games. Recent form is more mixed than the season-long metrics suggest: Kostinbrod's last five read W-W-L-W-W with three clean sheets and only one defeat, while Balkan Botevgrad's last five read D-L-W-L-W and include three matches without scoring. The head-to-head record also qualifies the home advantage, since Kostinbrod have won three of the last eight meetings, Balkan Botevgrad have won two, and three were drawn, including a 2-2 in September 2025 and a 1-0 Kostinbrod win in March 2026. Overall, the evidence supports the double chance more than a clear home win, because Kostinbrod's superior form and defensive record point one way while the close goals comparison and the history of draws point another, and the under 3.5 goals advice looks the better-supported part of the combination.

Predicted winner

Kostinbrod

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : Kostinbrod or draw and -3.5 goals

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

-3.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Kostinbrod 1–0 Balkan Botevgrad (21 Mar 2026)
2. Balkan Botevgrad 2–2 Kostinbrod (13 Sep 2025)
3. Kostinbrod 1–0 Balkan Botevgrad (27 Apr 2024)
4. Balkan Botevgrad 4–1 Kostinbrod (07 Oct 2023)
5. Balkan Botevgrad 2–2 Kostinbrod (06 May 2023)