Kosmos Dolgoprudny vs Yenisey II Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Kosmos Dolgoprudny a 45% home win and 45% draw against Yenisey II, leaving only 10% for an away win, so the double-chance advice on Kosmos or draw reflects a fixture the model sees as close between the two most likely outcomes rather than a clear home edge. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Kosmos leads on form (60 vs 40), defence (60 vs 40), Poisson (64 vs 36), head-to-head (67 vs 33), goals (57 vs 43) and overall total (56.8 vs 43.2), yet trails sharply on attack (33 vs 67), meaning the aggregate picture is supportive but not uniform. The head-to-head record explains much of the home-side tilt, as Kosmos won all three meetings, including a 2-1 away victory in June 2026 and a 1-0 home win in August 2025, although a three-match sample is small and all three were decided by a single goal. Yenisey II's attack metric is likely inflated by venue splits: they scored 19 goals at home but only 8 away, averaging 0.70 per away match, and they have won zero of 11 away fixtures all season, which undercuts the reliability of that attacking advantage in this specific context. Kosmos's own profile is mixed, with 8 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses overall, only 3 clean sheets and 6 matches without scoring, so their defensive comparison edge looks more relative than absolute. The goals analysis adds a further qualifier, since Kosmos average 1.20 scored and 1.50 conceded while Yenisey II average 1.20 scored and 2.10 conceded, and the away side's 2.50 away concession rate suggests a leaky defence that could offset their scoring threat. Recent form is similarly discouraging for the visitors, as Yenisey II's last five produced one win, one draw and three defeats, including a 6-2 home loss to Dinamo St. Petersburg, while Kosmos's last five yielded two wins and three defeats with no clean sheet in that run. The goals distribution hints at late volatility, with Kosmos conceding 26.47% of their goals against in the 76-90 window and Yenisey II scoring 32.14% of their goals in the 61-75 window, so the match could shift after the hour even if the model's double-chance read holds. Overall, the evidence supports the existing Kosmos-or-draw advice through form, defence, Poisson and head-to-head, but the away side's superior attack rating and the narrow 45-45 split between win and draw mean this should be treated as a tentative lean rather than a confident outcome.

Predicted winner

Kosmos Dolgoprudny

Betting advice

Double chance : Kosmos Dolgoprudny or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

—

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Yenisey II 1–2 Kosmos Dolgoprudny (07 Jun 2026)
2. Kosmos Dolgoprudny 0–1 Yenisey II (10 Aug 2025)
3. Yenisey II 1–2 Kosmos Dolgoprudny (20 Apr 2025)