Konnerud vs KFUM II Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives KFUM II a 45% win probability and Konnerud only 10%, with a 45% draw, so the advice of a draw-or-KFUM II double chance combined with over 2.5 goals rests on a near-even split between an away win and a stalemate rather than a clear favourite. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where KFUM II dominate attack (67 vs 33), goals (67 vs 33) and head-to-head (100 vs 0), yet Konnerud surprisingly lead form (57 vs 43) and Poisson (65 vs 35), meaning the statistical signals point in opposite directions. The head-to-head sample is tiny, a single 4-2 KFUM II home win in May 2026, so its 100% weighting should be treated as suggestive rather than decisive. Konnerud's form string is dire overall, with 14 losses in 20 matches and a six-game losing streak, though their 4-1-4 home record is noticeably better than their 1-10 away record, which may explain the relatively strong Poisson and form scores. KFUM II's own form is similarly poor at 6 wins, 2 draws and 11 losses, but their away record of 2-1-6 is weak, and their last five show three heavy defeats including 7-2 at Asker and 5-2 at home to IF Ready. Konnerud's last five are also discouraging, with a 7-1 loss at Gamle Oslo and a 2-0 defeat at Frigg, though a 3-2 home win over SF Grei shows they can score at home. The goals analysis strongly supports the over 2.5 component: KFUM II average 2.10 scored and 3.10 conceded per game, Konnerud 1.50 scored and 2.70 conceded, and neither team has kept a clean sheet away from home, with Konnerud recording zero clean sheets in 20 matches. Both defences leak heavily in the closing stages, as Konnerud concede 24.53% of goals in the 76-90 window and KFUM II 19.51%, while KFUM II also score 26.83% of their goals in the 46-60 period, suggesting late and second-half goals are likely. Overall, the evidence supports the double chance and over 2.5 advice through KFUM II's attacking edge and both teams' defensive fragility, but the draw probability and Konnerud's superior form and Poisson scores mean the away win is far from assured.

Predicted winner

KFUM II

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : draw or KFUM II and +2.5 goals

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

+2.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. KFUM II 4–2 Konnerud (04 May 2026)