Kom Berkovitsa vs OFK Levski Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Kom Berkovitsa as the winner, but its 45% home probability is matched by a 45% draw probability, leaving only 10% for OFK Levski, so the advice is better read as a slight preference than a clear edge. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Kom Berkovitsa dominates on form (67 vs 33), attack (83 vs 17), defence (29 vs 71), goals (72 vs 28) and total (66.2 vs 33.8), and the Poisson split is an extreme 100 to 0, yet the head-to-head is a less lopsided 80 to 20. The head-to-head record itself shows why the model cannot be fully confident: Kom Berkovitsa won the most recent meeting at home 2-1 in October 2025 and also triumphed 3-0 in November 2024 and 5-1 in May 2019, but OFK Levski won the May 2026 fixture 2-1 away and the April 2025 meeting 2-1 at home, so the series is not one-way. Kom Berkovitsa's last five (DDLWW) include a 4-1 away win at Pavlikeni and a 2-1 home win over Spartak Pleven II, but also a 4-0 away loss at Lokomotiv Mezdra and two 2-2 draws, suggesting a team that scores freely but concedes regularly. Their goals analysis supports that reading: 10 goals scored at 2.00 per game and 10 conceded at 2.00 per game, with no clean sheets in five matches and only one game under 2.5 goals, so the attacking output is real but the defensive record is porous. OFK Levski's last five (LDLW) are weaker, with a 2-1 home win over Bdin and a 0-0 home draw against Chavdar Troyan offset by 2-0 and 1-0 away defeats, and their goals analysis shows just 2 goals in four games (0.50 per game) with three failures to score, which explains their low attack and goals scores. The defensive numbers are more nuanced than the overall comparison suggests, because OFK Levski have conceded only 1.00 per game and kept one clean sheet, while Kom Berkovitsa have conceded 2.00 per game, so the away side's problem is scoring rather than preventing goals. Both samples are small, with Kom Berkovitsa having played five matches and OFK Levski four, and the goal-minute breakdowns are unavailable for both teams, so the timing patterns cannot be assessed. On balance, the evidence supports Kom Berkovitsa as the more likely winner through form, attack and historical dominance, but the high draw probability, the recent head-to-head split and Kom Berkovitsa's leaky defence mean the 45% home figure should be treated as a modest lean rather than a firm conclusion.

Predicted winner

Kom Berkovitsa

Betting advice

Winner : Kom Berkovitsa

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. OFK Levski 1–2 Kom Berkovitsa (09 May 2026)
2. Kom Berkovitsa 2–1 OFK Levski (18 Oct 2025)
3. OFK Levski 2–1 Kom Berkovitsa (26 Apr 2025)
4. Kom Berkovitsa 3–0 OFK Levski (02 Nov 2024)
5. Kom Berkovitsa 5–1 OFK Levski (19 May 2019)