Kirchanschöring vs Heimstetten Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Heimstetten via a “win or draw” double chance, with draw and away each at 45% against only 10% for Kirchanschöring, and the advice pairs that with over 1.5 goals. That stance is only partly echoed by the comparison metrics: Heimstetten lead on form (60 vs 40) and attack (61 vs 39), while defence is dead level at 50 and the Poisson split actually favours Kirchanschöring 54 to 46, so the model’s edge rests more on recent results than on a projected scoreline. The head-to-head and goals splits also cut against a clean Heimstetten read, since Kirchanschöring hold 60 to 40 on h2h and Heimstetten only narrowly lead the goals and total columns (52 vs 48 and 51.5 vs 48.5). Kirchanschöring’s season profile is weak overall — two wins, three draws and six losses in eleven, with no clean sheets and an away record of four defeats from six — yet their home form is comparatively respectable at two wins and one draw from five. Heimstetten’s record is marginally better at three wins, four draws and four losses, and their away scoring average of 2.00 goals per game is the strongest attacking figure in the evidence, though it comes with a 2.60 away concession rate. The last-five records reinforce that both sides are porous rather than dominant: Kirchanschöring have one win, one draw and three defeats including a 5-2 loss at Pipinsried and a 4-0 loss at Ismaning, while Heimstetten have one win and three draws plus a 5-1 defeat at Wasserburg. The head-to-head series is the most awkward evidence for the prediction, as the six meetings show four home wins and two away wins with no draws, and the most recent fixture ended 3-2 to Kirchanschöring at Heimstetten. The goals data support the over 1.5 element more than the result element, since Kirchanschöring have gone over 1.5 in only four of eleven while Heimstetten have done so in five of eleven, and both teams have seen over 2.5 in a minority of matches. Overall, the advice looks like a cautious hedge: the form and attack metrics point toward Heimstetten, but the level defence, Poisson tilt, Kirchanschöring’s home solidity and a head-to-head record without draws all argue that the draw half of the double chance is doing much of the work.

Predicted winner

Heimstetten

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : draw or Heimstetten and +1.5 goals

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

+1.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Heimstetten 2–3 Kirchanschöring (02 May 2026)
2. Kirchanschöring 3–1 Heimstetten (17 Oct 2025)
3. Heimstetten 6–1 Kirchanschöring (25 Apr 2025)
4. Kirchanschöring 5–1 Heimstetten (01 Oct 2024)
5. Kirchanschöring 0–3 Heimstetten (09 Mar 2024)