Karlshamn vs Karlskrona Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model output favours Karlskrona as the winner with a combo of Karlskrona and over 1.5 goals, yet its own probabilities split the outcome evenly at 50% draw and 50% away with 0% for a Karlshamn win, so the advice rests on a narrow edge rather than a clear separation. That edge is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Karlskrona lead form 83 to 17, attack 71 to 29, defence 94 to 6, Poisson 84 to 16, head-to-head 80 to 20, goals 75 to 25, and total 81.2 to 18.8, a set of gaps that consistently point the same direction. The season records behind those numbers are starkly divergent: Karlskrona have 17 wins, 3 draws and only 2 defeats from 22 matches with 9 clean sheets, while Karlshamn have just 3 wins, 2 draws and 17 defeats with a single clean sheet. Karlshamn's defensive profile is the weakest link, conceding 2.5 goals per game overall and 3.0 away from home, including a 6-0 loss at Österlen, which is consistent with the model's expectation that this fixture clears 1.5 goals. Karlskrona's attacking output of 2.6 goals per game and their 5-0 and 4-1 recent wins also support the over 1.5 element, though their 0.9 goals conceded per game suggests the clean-sheet side of the bet is less certain than the goals side. The last-five records sharpen the contrast but also expose a tension: Karlskrona have won all five, scoring 15 and conceding just 1, whereas Karlshamn have lost four of five, conceding 15, yet Karlshamn's one win in that run was a 3-1 home success over Nosaby. The head-to-head record offers the strongest qualification to the away-favouring advice, since Karlskrona have won four of the last seven meetings but Karlshamn won the most recent 2025 encounter 4-0 away and also won 2-1 at home in 2024, showing this fixture has not been one-directional. The goals analysis adds nuance, as Karlshamn score most of their goals late (22.7% in the 76-90 window) while Karlskrona concede a notable 27.3% in that same period, so a late consolation could keep the over 1.5 alive even if Karlskrona control the match. Overall, the evidence broadly supports the existing Karlskrona and over 1.5 advice, but the 50% draw probability, Karlshamn's recent head-to-head wins, and the small-sample nature of last-five form mean the prediction should be treated as plausible rather than assured.

Predicted winner

Karlskrona

Betting advice

Combo Winner : Karlskrona and +1.5 goals

Home win probability

0%

Draw probability

50%

Away win probability

50%

Goals market

+1.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Karlskrona 3–1 Karlshamn (18 Jun 2026)
2. Karlshamn 0–4 Karlskrona (28 Jun 2025)
3. Karlskrona 3–1 Karlshamn (18 Apr 2025)
4. Karlskrona 4–1 Karlshamn (13 Sep 2024)
5. Karlshamn 2–1 Karlskrona (17 May 2024)