Karkonosze Jelenia Góra vs Goczałkowice Zdrój Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Goczałkowice Zdrój with a double chance of draw or away win, assigning 45% to each of those outcomes and only 10% to a Karkonosze Jelenia Góra victory, so the advice is essentially a bet against a home win rather than a strong call on the away side. That framing is supported by the comparison metrics, where Goczałkowice lead on form (71 versus 29), attack (64 versus 36), head-to-head (75 versus 25), goals (75 versus 25) and overall total (57 versus 43), although the two teams are level on defence at 50 each. The Poisson metric is the clearest internal conflict, rating Karkonosze at 93 and Goczałkowice at just 7, which sits awkwardly against the rest of the model and suggests the probabilities are not built on a single consistent signal. Karkonosze's own profile helps explain that tension: they are unbeaten at home across five matches with three wins and two draws, four home clean sheets, and only two home goals conceded, yet they have lost all three away games and failed to score in four of nine outings overall. Their last five results show the same split, with a 4-2 home win over Stilon Gorzów and a 0-0 home draw against Odra Bytom Odrzański offset by three away defeats, including 1-0 losses at Stal Brzeg and Zagłębie Lubin II. Goczałkowice's last five are more volatile but more productive, featuring home wins of 4-1 over Warta Gorzów, 3-0 over Kluczbork and 2-0 over Polonia Nysa alongside a 5-0 away defeat at Miedź Legnica II and a 0-0 draw at Rakow II. Their goals analysis reinforces that home-away imbalance, with 2.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per home game compared with 0.40 scored and 2.00 conceded per away game, and both teams concede disproportionately late, with Karkonosze shipping 42.86% of their goals against after the 76th minute and Goczałkowice 38.46%. The head-to-head record is the most direct qualifier of the away-leaning advice, since the last meeting in May 2026 was a 1-0 Karkonosze home defeat but the five most recent encounters include three draws and only one Goczałkowice win, with the 5-1 home rout in October 2023 the outlier. Overall, the evidence points to a low-scoring, finely balanced fixture in which Karkonosze's home resilience and the recent draw-heavy head-to-head temper the model's away lean, making the draw-or-away double chance a cautious hedge rather than a confident prediction.

Predicted winner

Goczałkowice Zdrój

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Goczałkowice Zdrój

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 0–1 Goczałkowice Zdrój (08 May 2026)
2. Goczałkowice Zdrój 1–0 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra (18 Oct 2025)
3. Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 0–0 Goczałkowice Zdrój (17 May 2025)
4. Goczałkowice Zdrój 0–0 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra (19 Oct 2024)
5. Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 1–1 Goczałkowice Zdrój (04 May 2024)