Karadeniz Ereğli BSK vs Amasyaspor 1968 Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Karadeniz Ereğli BSK via a combo double chance with under -3.5 goals, assigning 45% home win, 45% draw and only 10% away win, so the advice is essentially a bet against an Amasyaspor victory rather than a strong home endorsement. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where form is dead level at 50.00 each and the Poisson split is only mildly pro-home at 54.00 versus 46.00, while the total scores of 58.40 and 41.60 show a modest rather than decisive edge. The sharper splits point in opposite directions: Amasyaspor leads attack 67.00 to 33.00, Karadeniz Ereğli leads defence 75.00 to 25.00, and the goals comparison is heavily home at 80.00 to 20.00, so the model appears to be weighting defensive solidity and goal expectancy over raw attacking output. Both teams' three-match league records are identical in shape — one win, two draws, no defeats — with Karadeniz Ereğli's DWD built on two clean sheets and only one goal conceded, and Amasyaspor's WDD featuring four goals scored but three conceded, including two inside the opening fifteen minutes. The goals analysis supports the under -3.5 element, since neither side has seen a match go over 2.5 goals and Karadeniz Ereğli's games have produced just two goals for and one against across three outings, though Amasyaspor's 10-0 cup win over Cankirigucu is a clear outlier that inflates its attacking numbers. The last-five records qualify the form picture: Karadeniz Ereğli's sequence includes two April defeats to Yozgat Bld Bozokspor, while Amasyaspor's recent league form is steadier but its only loss came away at Pazarspor, and the 10-0 result sits awkwardly alongside a 2-2 home draw with Kartal Bulvarspor. The head-to-head record is the strongest single signal for the home side, with Karadeniz Ereğli winning both 2025 meetings — 2-0 at home and 2-1 away in Amasya — which explains the 100.00 to 0.00 h2h split and helps justify the double chance despite the even form. Overall, the evidence coheres around a low-scoring, hard-to-call fixture where home advantage, head-to-head history and defensive numbers support avoiding an away win, but the small three-match samples, Amasyaspor's superior attack rating and the anomalous 10-0 result mean the 45% draw probability is doing much of the work in a prediction that should be treated as tentative rather than confident.

Predicted winner

Karadeniz Ereğli BSK

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : Karadeniz Ereğli BSK or draw and -3.5 goals

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

-3.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Amasyaspor 1968 1–2 Karadeniz Ereğli BSK (28 Mar 2026)
2. Karadeniz Ereğli BSK 2–0 Amasyaspor 1968 (06 Dec 2025)