Karacabey Belediyespor vs Ankaragücü Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Karacabey Belediyespor via a combo double chance with under -3.5 goals, assigning 45% to a home win and 45% to a draw against only 10% for Ankaragücü, so the advice is essentially a bet against an away victory rather than a strong call on the outright result. That split is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Karacabey lead on form (80 versus 20), attack (67 versus 33), defence (75 versus 25) and Poisson (100 versus 0), and hold a 74 to 26 edge in the total score. The main tension sits in the head-to-head and goals columns, which both read 0 for Karacabey and 100 for Ankaragücü, meaning the two prior meetings and the goal-based comparison point the other way and qualify the otherwise one-sided profile. Those head-to-head results are concrete: Ankaragücü won 2-0 at Karacabey in February 2026 and also won 2-0 at home in October 2025, so the away side has taken both recent encounters without conceding. The team analysis softens that contradiction, since Karacabey are unbeaten in two matches this season with a win and a draw, one clean sheet and no failures to score, while Ankaragücü have lost two of three, drawn one, and failed to score twice. The goals analysis supports the low-scoring half of the advice, as Karacabey average 1.00 goal for and 0.50 against, and Ankaragücü average just 0.30 for and 1.00 against, with every under 3.5 line comfortably covered in both samples. The last-five records add nuance rather than clarity, because Karacabey's sequence includes a 1-0 away win at İnegölspor and a 1-1 home draw with Serik Spor but also older defeats and draws, while Ankaragücü's most recent five mix a 1-1 draw, two 1-0 losses, a 4-1 win and a 1-1 draw. Both teams have missed their only penalty of the season, a small-sample detail that hints at wastefulness in front of goal and further supports the cautious under angle. Overall, the form, defensive and Poisson evidence jointly justify favouring Karacabey not to lose, but the perfect away record in head-to-head and the goal comparison mean the 10% away probability looks more like a model judgement than a settled conclusion.

Predicted winner

Karacabey Belediyespor

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : Karacabey Belediyespor or draw and -3.5 goals

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

-3.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Karacabey Belediyespor 0–2 Ankaragücü (22 Feb 2026)
2. Ankaragücü 2–0 Karacabey Belediyespor (12 Oct 2025)