Kaposvar vs Ferencváros II Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Kaposvar via a double chance with over 1.5 goals, expressed as 45% home, 45% draw and only 10% away, so the advice effectively treats a Kaposvar defeat as the least likely outcome. That view is broadly consistent with the comparison metrics, where Kaposvar lead on form (56 vs 44), defence (53 vs 47), Poisson (79 vs 21), head-to-head (62 vs 38), goals (69 vs 31) and overall total (61.5 vs 38.5), although the identical attack scores of 50 show the two sides are rated equally going forward. Kaposvar's seven-game record of five wins and two defeats, including a five-match winning streak and a 7-0 home win, supports the stronger form reading, but their last five mix three wins with losses to Majosi (1-4) and Pecsi MFC (0-1), which tempers any impression of untouchable momentum. Ferencvaros II are harder to dismiss than the 10% away probability suggests, since their three wins all came at home while their away record is two draws and one defeat, and their last five include a 5-0 home win over Majosi plus a 3-3 draw at Erdi VSE. The goals analysis adds nuance: Kaposvar average 2.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded, with 50% of their goals arriving in the first and last fifteen-minute blocks, whereas Ferencvaros II average 2.10 scored and 1.60 conceded, and 63.64% of the goals they concede come after the 76th minute. That late vulnerability in the away side's defence, combined with Kaposvar's tendency to score early and late, gives some structural support to the over 1.5 element of the advice, even though Kaposvar's own goals-for under/over line shows only five of seven matches going over 1.5. The head-to-head record is genuinely mixed rather than one-sided: Kaposvar won 4-0 and 2-0 at home and lost 0-1 at home to Ferencvaros II, while the two meetings at the FTC Utánpótlás Centrum both ended 1-1 and 2-2, so the 62-38 head-to-head split may overstate Kaposvar's control. The draw probability of 45% is therefore not merely a hedge, because Ferencvaros II have drawn twice away and the recent head-to-head has produced two stalemates, while the low 10% away figure rests mainly on their winless away record rather than on any clear defensive superiority. Overall, the evidence supports the double chance and the modest goals line more than it supports a comfortable Kaposvar win, and the small seven-match samples plus the split head-to-head results mean the probabilities should be read as directional rather than decisive.

Predicted winner

Kaposvar

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : Kaposvar or draw and +1.5 goals

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

+1.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Kaposvar 0–1 Ferencváros II (26 Apr 2026)
2. Ferencváros II 1–1 Kaposvar (12 Oct 2025)
3. Kaposvar 4–0 Ferencváros II (04 May 2025)
4. Ferencváros II 2–2 Kaposvar (20 Oct 2024)
5. Kaposvar 2–0 Ferencváros II (07 Apr 2024)