Kalsdorf vs Tillmitsch Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Kalsdorf via a double chance with over 1.5 goals, assigning 45% to a home win and 45% to a draw against only 10% for Tillmitsch, so the advice is essentially a bet against an away victory rather than a strong home endorsement. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Kalsdorf's advantages in form (57 vs 43), defence (69 vs 31), Poisson (70 vs 30), head-to-head (60 vs 40) and overall totals (60 vs 40) are offset by Tillmitsch's superior attack rating of 58 against 42. The goals data explains why the +1.5 component looks reasonable, since Kalsdorf average 2.00 goals per game and Tillmitsch 1.90, while both concede exactly 1.00 and 1.90 respectively, pointing to a contest where at least a couple of goals seem plausible. Kalsdorf's seven-match record of four wins, two draws and one loss, including a 5-2 home win and only one failure to score, suggests a relatively reliable attacking floor, though their recent 0-1 defeat at Deutschlandsberger SC shows they are not immune to being shut down. Tillmitsch's 2-3-2 record with no clean sheets in seven attempts and a 4-2 loss at Allerheiligen indicates defensive vulnerability, but their 2.30 away goals per game shows they carry a genuine scoring threat that complicates the clean home narrative. The last-five sequences sharpen this tension: Kalsdorf have W, D, L mixed into their recent run with a 3-0 win over Hartberg (Am) and a 2-2 draw at SV Lafnitz, while Tillmitsch have drawn four of five, including 2-2 results against Hartberg (Am), Weiz and Deutschlandsberger SC, plus a 3-1 win at Lafnitz. Those repeated Tillmitsch draws are a small sample but they align with the model's unusually high 45% draw probability and help explain why the advice avoids a straight home win. The head-to-head record is the most direct qualifier, as Kalsdorf won the most recent meeting 1-0 away in August 2026 and also won a February 2026 friendly 3-1 away, yet Tillmitsch won three of the four earlier Landesliga meetings, including 1-0 at home in September 2024 and March 2024. This mixed head-to-head history, combined with Tillmitsch's stronger attack and habit of drawing, means the evidence supports Kalsdorf avoiding defeat more than it supports a comfortable home victory, and the over 1.5 goals element rests on both teams' scoring patterns rather than on either defence being reliably solid.

Predicted winner

Kalsdorf

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : Kalsdorf or draw and +1.5 goals

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

+1.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Tillmitsch 0–1 Kalsdorf (07 Aug 2026)
2. Tillmitsch 1–3 Kalsdorf (13 Feb 2026)
3. Kalsdorf 4–2 Tillmitsch (25 Apr 2025)
4. Tillmitsch 1–0 Kalsdorf (20 Sep 2024)
5. Tillmitsch 1–0 Kalsdorf (29 Mar 2024)