Juventud Torremolinos vs Algeciras Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Algeciras a combined 90% chance of avoiding defeat through a 45% draw and 45% away win, with only a 10% home win for Juventud Torremolinos, and pairs that double chance with an over 3.5 goals advice. That split is notable because the comparison metrics are largely balanced, with form and attack both level at 50.00, while defence slightly favours Algeciras at 47.00 against 53.00 and the Poisson model leans marginally to the home side at 51.00 versus 49.00. The sharper separation appears in the head-to-head and goals metrics, where Algeciras hold an 80.00 to 20.00 advantage and a 67.00 to 33.00 edge, which helps explain why the probabilities tilt away from the home team despite the Poisson conflict. Both teams arrive with identical recent form strings of one draw and three defeats, yet the underlying records differ: Torremolinos have one draw and three losses from four, while Algeciras also have one draw and three losses but have lost three straight. Torremolinos have scored five and conceded nine, including a 3-4 home defeat to Zaragoza, whereas Algeciras have scored five and conceded ten, with a 4-2 away loss at Gimnastic and a 1-3 home loss to FC Cartagena. The goals analysis reinforces the high-scoring advice, as Torremolinos average 1.30 scored and 2.30 conceded per game, while Algeciras average 1.30 scored and 2.50 conceded, and neither side has kept a clean sheet in four matches. Both teams have seen over 0.5 and over 1.5 goals in all four games, but only one of Torremolinos' four and two of Algeciras' four have gone over 2.5, so the +3.5 goals element is less strongly supported than the double chance. The head-to-head record is small but consistent, with Algeciras winning 1-0 at home in February 2026 and drawing 1-1 at Torremolinos in November 2025, giving Algeciras the 80.00 h2h metric and suggesting they are the more reliable side in this specific matchup. Overall, the evidence supports the draw-or-Algeciras advice more than the over 3.5 goals component, since the defensive and head-to-head data point to Algeciras avoiding defeat while the goal totals lean toward a moderate rather than a high-scoring game.

Predicted winner

Algeciras

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : draw or Algeciras and +3.5 goals

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

+3.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Algeciras 1–0 Juventud Torremolinos (14 Feb 2026)
2. Juventud Torremolinos 1–1 Algeciras (16 Nov 2025)