Jonsered vs Hestrafor Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Hestrafor a 45% chance of winning and Jonsered only 10%, with the draw also at 45%, so the advice of a draw-or-Hestrafor double chance with over 1.5 goals rests on a clear but not overwhelming edge. That edge is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Hestrafor leads on form (59 vs 41), attack (58 vs 42), goals (60 vs 40) and total (55.2 vs 44.8), while Jonsered's only advantages are a modest defensive score (47 vs 53 in Jonsered's favour) and an even head-to-head split at 50-50. The Poisson metric is nearly level at 49-51, which tempers the stronger form and goals signals and suggests the model sees this as a close contest rather than a one-sided one. Jonsered's season record of 11 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses is built on home strength (7-3-1 at home) but away weakness (4-2-5), and their 38 goals scored against 36 conceded reflect a moderate attack that averages 1.70 per game. Hestrafor's 12 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses come with a more balanced home-and-away profile (6-1-4 at home, 6-3-2 away) and a stronger 47 goals scored against 37 conceded, averaging 2.10 per game, which supports the attacking side of the advice. The goals analysis adds nuance: Jonsered's matches have gone over 1.5 goals in 11 of 22 while Hestrafor's have done so in 17 of 22, and Hestrafor's scoring is heavily front-loaded with 22% of goals in the first 15 minutes, whereas Jonsered scores most in the 61-90 window. The last-five records show Jonsered alternating results (L-W-L-W-D) with two defeats and only one clean sheet, while Hestrafor have won three of five (L-W-W-W-D) and scored in every one of those matches, which supports the over 1.5 goals element. The head-to-head record is the most cautionary evidence: Hestrafor won the most recent meeting 5-1 in May 2026, but the two 2025 fixtures produced a 0-0 draw at Jonsered and a 3-1 Hestrafor away win, so the sample is small and includes both a high-scoring blowout and a goalless stalemate. Overall, the form, goals and recent-results evidence points toward Hestrafor avoiding defeat with goals likely, but the level Poisson score, Jonsered's strong home record and the mixed head-to-head history mean the draw-or-away double chance is a reasonable hedge rather than a confident call.

Predicted winner

Hestrafor

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : draw or Hestrafor and +1.5 goals

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

+1.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Hestrafor 5–1 Jonsered (22 May 2026)
2. Jonsered 0–0 Hestrafor (29 Jun 2025)
3. Hestrafor 1–3 Jonsered (06 Jun 2025)