Jaraíz vs Villafranca Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model output gives Jaraíz a 35% home win probability, a 35% draw probability and a 30% away win probability, which is why the advice is the double chance "Jaraíz or draw" rather than a straight home win. That cautious framing is supported by the comparison metrics, where Jaraíz leads on attack (57 versus 43), defence (45 versus 55), head-to-head (60 versus 40) and goals (63 versus 37), yet trails badly on form (25 versus 75) and is rated 0 versus 100 on the Poisson measure. The form gap is explained by the last-five records: Jaraíz have lost three of five, including a 2-3 home defeat to Moralo and a 0-1 loss at Llerenense, while Villafranca have won two of five, most notably a 2-0 away victory at Guadiana. Villafranca's form is nonetheless volatile, since their three most recent league matches produced a 0-1 home loss to Villanovense, that 2-0 away win and a 1-4 home defeat to Azuaga, so their 75 form score rests on a very small and inconsistent sample. Jaraíz's team analysis shows a DLL sequence with no wins in three, one draw and two defeats, and their goals analysis reveals a clear home-away split: all four of their goals came at home at 2.00 per game, while they failed to score in their only away match. Villafranca's goals analysis shows the mirror image, with both of their goals coming away at 2.00 per game and a 0.00 home average, plus one clean sheet on the road, which suggests their threat may be concentrated in away fixtures. The head-to-head record is the strongest counterweight to the form data, as Jaraíz have won three of the six meetings, including 4-1 at home in November 2025 and 4-1 at home in December 2024, although Villafranca won the most recent encounter 2-1 in March 2026 and also recorded a 5-0 home win in September 2023. Overall, the evidence points to a genuinely balanced fixture in which Jaraíz's historical and attacking edge is offset by Villafranca's superior recent form and away-day efficiency, so the double chance advice looks like a reasonable hedge rather than a confident call.

Predicted winner

Jaraíz

Betting advice

Double chance : Jaraíz or draw

Home win probability

35%

Draw probability

35%

Away win probability

30%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Villafranca 2–1 Jaraíz (15 Mar 2026)
2. Jaraíz 4–1 Villafranca (02 Nov 2025)
3. Villafranca 1–2 Jaraíz (04 May 2025)
4. Jaraíz 4–1 Villafranca (22 Dec 2024)
5. Jaraíz 1–2 Villafranca (21 Jan 2024)