Izarra vs Beti Kozkor Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward an Izarra win, but its 45% home probability is matched by a 45% draw probability and only 10% for Beti Kozkor, so the advice of "Winner: Izarra" rests on a narrow edge rather than a clear separation. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Izarra dominate attack (86 vs 14), head-to-head (100 vs 0), goals (100 vs 0) and total (71 vs 29), yet the Poisson column is empty at 0.00 for both sides and the defence split is extreme in opposite directions (0 vs 100), suggesting the aggregate scores are driven by a few lopsided inputs rather than a balanced profile. Izarra's form of WWW across three matches, with 12 goals scored and only one conceded, is the strongest single argument for the prediction, and their away record is especially striking with 4-0 wins at Bidezarra and Cirbonero plus a 4-1 home win over San Juan. Beti Kozkor counter with a DWW sequence and three clean sheets in three games, having scored just twice while conceding nothing, which explains why the model still assigns them a non-trivial share despite the low away probability. The goals analysis sharpens this contrast: Izarra average 4.00 goals per game and have gone over 3.5 in all three fixtures, whereas Beti Kozkor average 0.70 and have stayed under 1.5 in every match, so the two teams' scoring distributions barely overlap. Izarra's goals are spread across the second half, with 25% each in the 46-60, 61-75 and 76-90 windows, while their only concession came in the 31-45 band, hinting at a late-game scoring pattern rather than a single burst. The last-five records add a qualification, since Izarra's three wins are preceded by a 1-5 loss and a 1-1 draw against Pamplona in June, and Beti Kozkor's unbeaten run includes two 0-0 draws, so both samples are small and partly stale. The head-to-head record is split across two 2025 meetings, with Izarra winning 1-0 at home and losing 0-3 away, which supports the home-side lean but also shows Beti Kozkor are capable of a decisive result in this matchup. Overall, the evidence points toward Izarra as the more likely winner on current scoring form, but the equal home and draw probabilities, the empty Poisson values and the tiny three-game samples mean the prediction should be treated as a modest lean rather than a confident outcome.

Predicted winner

Izarra

Betting advice

Winner : Izarra

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Izarra 1–0 Beti Kozkor (22 Feb 2026)
2. Beti Kozkor 0–3 Izarra (11 Oct 2025)