Isidro Metapán vs Cacahuatique Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Isidro Metapán a 45% home win and 45% draw against Cacahuatique's 10%, framing the advice of a Metapán-or-draw double chance combined with under 3.5 goals as a cautious lean rather than a strong home verdict. That caution is consistent with the comparison metrics, where Metapán leads on form (78 vs 22), attack (71 vs 29), Poisson (70 vs 30), head-to-head (64 vs 36), goals (57 vs 43) and overall total (65.7 vs 34.3), yet the defence gap is comparatively narrow at 54 vs 46. Metapán's 11-game record of six wins, two draws and three losses, with 15 goals scored and only 10 conceded, contrasts with Cacahuatique's single win, five draws and five losses, and their split output of 11 scored against 18 conceded. The goals analysis sharpens that contrast: Metapán average 1.40 goals for and 0.90 against, while Cacahuatique average 1.00 for and 1.60 against, and both teams' under-3.5 counts (10 of 11 matches each) directly support the low-scoring half of the advice. Cacahuatique's away profile is the main qualifier, since all three of their away matches ended in draws with just one goal scored and one conceded, suggesting their travel form is far more resilient than their overall record implies. The last-five records reinforce the same tension, as Metapán's two wins, one draw and two losses include a 0-0 draw at Inter and a 1-3 loss at Municipal Limeño, while Cacahuatique's three home defeats and two away draws show they have recently struggled to score anywhere. The head-to-head record is the strongest counterweight to a home-win assumption, with five of the last nine meetings drawn, including four goalless or 1-1 stalemates, and Metapán's only recent win in the series coming away in July 2026 by 4-2. Because those head-to-head matches have generally been tight and low-scoring, the draw probability of 45% looks well supported, and the double-chance advice appears more defensible than a straight Metapán win. The main uncertainty is that Cacahuatique's away sample is only three matches and their overall form string of one win in eleven is weak, so the model's 10% away probability may understate a draw-heavy pattern rather than a genuine away threat. No venue name is available for this fixture, and no prediction data beyond the supplied probabilities, advice and comparison metrics should be inferred.

Predicted winner

Isidro Metapán

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : Isidro Metapán or draw and -3.5 goals

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

-3.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Cacahuatique 2–4 Isidro Metapán (25 Jul 2026)
2. Isidro Metapán 1–1 Cacahuatique (12 Apr 2026)
3. Cacahuatique 1–1 Isidro Metapán (15 Feb 2026)
4. Isidro Metapán 0–0 Cacahuatique (26 Oct 2025)
5. Cacahuatique 2–2 Isidro Metapán (24 Aug 2025)