Irapuato vs Lobos ULMX Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward an Irapuato win, but its 45% home probability is matched by a 45% draw probability, with only 10% for Lobos ULMX, so the advice is better read as a narrow lean than a confident call. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Irapuato dominates form (92 versus 8), attack (77 versus 23) and Poisson (74 versus 26), yet the head-to-head and goals splits sit level at 50–50, and the overall total of 66.5 versus 33.5 shows the aggregate edge is real but not absolute. Irapuato's team analysis supports the stronger side of that split: four wins from four with a WWWW form line, two home and two away victories, no defeats, and a 2-1 best home win alongside a 0-3 best away win, though the single clean sheet and no failed-to-score record hint at a side that wins while still conceding. Lobos ULMX present the opposite profile, with an LLD form line, no wins in three matches, one draw and two defeats, and no clean sheets, which is consistent with their low 10% win probability but also with a team that has avoided heavy losses. The goals analysis sharpens the contrast: Irapuato average 2.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded, with ten goals spread across almost every fifteen-minute band, while Lobos ULMX average just 1.00 scored and 1.70 conceded, and all three of their goals arrived in the 61–75 minute window. Irapuato's last five show four straight wins before an older 0-0 draw with Mineros de Zacatecas, including a 3-2 away win at Reboceros La Piedad and a 3-0 away win at Cordobés, so their recent form is strong but the sample is short and the most recent match was a one-goal margin. Lobos ULMX's last five read as a 1-1 draw at Tigres de Alica, home and away defeats by 1-2, an older 1-4 loss at Calor de San Pedro, and a 1-0 home win over Zitacuaro, which suggests low-scoring involvement rather than collapse. The head-to-head record is the clearest counterweight to the form gap, since all four meetings were draws — 1-1, 0-0, 0-0 and 1-1 — with the 50–50 h2h split reflecting that neither side has found a way to win this fixture. Taken together, the evidence supports the existing Irapuato advice through form, attack and Poisson superiority, but the level head-to-head and goals splits, the 45% draw probability, and Lobos ULMX's habit of keeping matches close mean a draw or a narrow Irapuato win are both plausible outcomes rather than a guaranteed home victory.

Predicted winner

Irapuato

Betting advice

Winner : Irapuato

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Lobos ULMX 1–1 Irapuato (02 Feb 2025)
2. Irapuato 0–0 Lobos ULMX (29 Sep 2024)
3. Lobos ULMX 0–0 Irapuato (21 Jan 2024)
4. Irapuato 1–1 Lobos ULMX (20 Aug 2023)