Indy Eleven vs Miami FC Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Indy Eleven a 45% home win and 45% draw against Miami FC’s 10% away win, so the “Indy Eleven or draw” double chance reflects a combined 90% probability rather than a strong single-outcome call. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics: form is level at 50.00 for both sides, while Indy’s advantages in attack (60.00 vs 40.00), defence (61.00 vs 39.00), Poisson (78.00 vs 22.00), head-to-head (80.00 vs 20.00), goals (69.00 vs 31.00) and total (66.30 vs 33.70) all point the same way. Indy’s season profile supports that edge at home, with 8 wins, 3 draws and only 2 defeats in 13 home fixtures, whereas Miami have just 2 away wins from 13 and have lost 6 on the road. The goals analysis sharpens the contrast: Indy average 1.80 goals at home and concede only 0.80 there, while Miami score 0.80 away and concede 1.60, and Miami’s 43 goals against is notably worse than Indy’s 29. Indy’s last five are mixed, however, with a 0-1 home loss to Oakland Roots and a 1-2 away defeat at Phoenix Rising offsetting a 4-0 home win over Brooklyn and two 2-2 draws, so their recent form is not as dominant as the season-long home record suggests. Miami’s last five are similarly uneven, featuring a 2-1 away win at Rhode Island and two draws but also a 0-5 loss at Charleston Battery and a 1-2 defeat at Hartford Athletic, which helps explain why their away probability remains low despite the recent win. The head-to-head record is the most direct qualifier of the advice: Indy have won four of the last ten meetings, Miami have won four, and one was drawn, including Miami’s 2-0 home win in July 2026, so the 80/20 head-to-head comparison overstates Indy’s control of this specific matchup. Overall, the broad statistical profile and home/away splits justify treating Indy as the more likely side to avoid defeat, but the level form, Indy’s recent home loss, and Miami’s recent away win and head-to-head success mean the draw component of the double chance carries real weight rather than being a formality.

Predicted winner

Indy Eleven

Betting advice

Double chance : Indy Eleven or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Miami FC 2–0 Indy Eleven (16 Jul 2026)
2. Indy Eleven 3–2 Miami FC (24 Aug 2025)
3. Indy Eleven 1–0 Miami FC (17 Apr 2025)
4. Miami FC 1–3 Indy Eleven (16 Mar 2025)
5. Indy Eleven 4–0 Miami FC (29 Sep 2024)