Indonesia vs Thailand Prediction
· Gelora Bung Karno Madya Stadium
OUR RECOMMENDATIONCombo Double chance : draw or Thailand and +1.5 goals
Match prediction
- Thailand's 45% win and draw probability each, versus Indonesia's 10%, anchors the double-chance advice despite Indonesia's superior recent form.
- Indonesia's strong form and attack metrics conflict with their low win probability, suggesting the model weights head-to-head and Poisson heavily.
- Thailand's 75% head-to-head edge and perfect Poisson score justify favoring them, though recent form favors Indonesia.
- Both teams' identical defensive records and Indonesia's high-scoring home wins support the +1.5 goals component.
- Indonesia's 9-2 win over Bangladesh inflates their goal averages, so the model likely discounts that outlier.
- Thailand's away scoring and Indonesia's home scoring both point to goals, reinforcing the over 1.5 selection.
- Predicted winner
- Thailand
- Betting advice
- Combo Double chance : draw or Thailand and +1.5 goals
- Home win probability
- 10%
- Draw probability
- 45%
- Away win probability
- 45%
- Goals market
- +1.5
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Indonesia | Thailand |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 54.0% | 46.0% |
| Attack | 61.0% | 39.0% |
| Defence | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Poisson | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| H2h | 25.0% | 75.0% |
| Goals | 29.0% | 71.0% |
| Total | 43.8% | 56.2% |
Team form and goal analysis
Indonesia
Recent form: WDW.
Average goals scored: 3.70 per match.
Thailand
Recent form: WWL.
Average goals scored: 2.30 per match.
Head-to-head record
- Indonesia 1–1 Thailand (29 Dec 2022)
- Thailand 2–2 Indonesia (01 Jan 2022)
- Indonesia 0–4 Thailand (29 Dec 2021)
- Thailand 2–2 Indonesia (03 Jun 2021)
- Indonesia 0–3 Thailand (10 Sep 2019)