Inca Aruba vs Municipal Limeño Prediction

Match prediction

• The model's 45% draw and 45% away split makes the double chance the coherent expression of its output, since the home win carries only 10%.
• Municipal Limeño's superior attack, defence, and Poisson metrics align with the away-leaning probabilities, though the level draw share signals genuine uncertainty.
• Inca Aruba's better recent form and home advantage conflict with the model's low home probability, suggesting form alone does not offset their weaker underlying numbers.
• The sole head-to-head meeting, a 2-0 Municipal Limeño win, supports the away side but represents too small a sample to carry much weight.
• Inca Aruba's low scoring rate and Municipal Limeño's tendency toward low-scoring matches both point away from a high-scoring home upset.
• Municipal Limeño's mixed recent results, including two defeats, qualify the advice by showing the away side is not reliably dominant.

Predicted winner

Municipal Limeño

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Municipal Limeño

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Municipal Limeño 2–0 Inca Aruba (30 Jul 2026)