Imperia vs Fezzanese Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Fezzanese a double-chance edge of draw or away win, with the probabilities split evenly at 45% for a draw and 45% for a Fezzanese victory against only 10% for an Imperia win. That lean is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Fezzanese leads form 64 to 36, attack 67 to 33, and Poisson 82 to 18, while defence is level at 50–50 and both head-to-head and goals comparisons sit at 0–0, meaning those latter categories offer no separating signal. The overall totals mirror this, with Fezzanese at 65.80 against Imperia's 34.30, so the weight of the comparative evidence points one way even though the draw probability is just as high as the away win. Imperia's own record is modest but not empty: across three fixtures they have one win, one draw and one loss, scoring and conceding exactly one goal per game, with a single clean sheet and no match in which they failed to score. Their last five show a 1-0 home win over Millesimo, a 1-1 draw at Derthona, and three defeats — 1-2 to Asti at home, 1-2 at Pro Patria, and 0-1 to Celle Varazze — which suggests a low-scoring, narrow-margin profile rather than a collapsing one. Fezzanese, by contrast, have four fixtures with two wins, one draw and one loss, averaging 1.50 goals scored and only 0.80 conceded, including a 3-0 away win at Sestri Levante and a 2-0 home win over Chisola before a 0-2 home loss to Gozzano. Their scoring is spread across the match, with half of their six goals arriving in the 31–45 window, and their defensive record is tighter away (0.50 conceded per game) than at home (1.00), which slightly qualifies the double-chance advice because their most recent outing was a home defeat. The head-to-head section is empty, so no historical fixture between these teams can be used to confirm or contradict the model's lean, and the goals comparison likewise returns 0–0, leaving the prediction resting mainly on form, attack and Poisson differences. Because those differences come from small samples of three to four matches, the 45% draw probability is a useful reminder that the advice is a double chance rather than a confident away win.

Predicted winner

Fezzanese

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Fezzanese

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

No recorded head-to-head matches are available.