Illescas vs Villarrubia Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model output gives Illescas a 50% home probability and a 50% draw probability, with Villarrubia at 0%, producing the advice of a double chance on Illescas or draw. That stance is broadly consistent with the comparison metrics, where Illescas leads on form (71.00 vs 29.00), defence (75.00 vs 25.00), head-to-head (75.00 vs 25.00), goals (63.00 vs 38.00) and overall total (68.80 vs 31.40), though the attack gap is narrower at 60.00 vs 40.00. The Poisson values are both 0.00, so that particular comparison offers no separating signal and should not be read as reinforcing the edge. Illescas' three league games show a WDD form with one win and two draws, two clean sheets and only two goals conceded, while Villarrubia's DDL includes a 0-4 home defeat and six goals against in three matches, which helps explain the defensive split. The goals analysis reinforces that contrast: Illescas average 1.00 scored and 0.70 conceded per game, whereas Villarrubia average 0.70 scored and 2.00 conceded, with their five home goals against concentrated early and late in matches. The last-five records add nuance, since Illescas' sequence includes a 0-1 home loss to Pozuelo Alarcón and a 1-1 draw with SS Reyes II, so their unbeaten league start is not the same as dominant form. Villarrubia's last five contain a 1-0 win over Huracán Balazote and a 0-2 loss to Guadalajara II alongside the recent 0-4 defeat, suggesting a small sample with mixed results rather than a clear collapse. The head-to-head record is the most cautionary element for the advice, because the last two meetings produced a 0-0 draw at Illescas and a 3-2 Illescas win at Villarrubia, while several earlier fixtures were also drawn or won by the away side. Overall, the evidence supports the double-chance framing more than an outright home win, but the low-scoring and draw-heavy history means the 50% draw component is doing meaningful work in that conclusion.

Predicted winner

Illescas

Betting advice

Double chance : Illescas or draw

Home win probability

50%

Draw probability

50%

Away win probability

0%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Illescas 0–0 Villarrubia (01 Mar 2026)
2. Villarrubia 2–3 Illescas (18 Oct 2025)
3. Illescas 0–0 Villarrubia (06 May 2023)
4. Villarrubia 0–1 Illescas (30 Apr 2023)
5. Villarrubia 1–1 Illescas (18 Feb 2023)