Hummetroth vs Fernwald Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Fernwald a "win or draw" double chance, with the probabilities split evenly between a draw and an away win at 45% each and only 10% assigned to a Hummetroth victory. That lean is reinforced by the Poisson comparison, where Fernwald holds a clear 66 to 34 advantage, and by the goals comparison at 57 to 43, even though the form, attack and head-to-head metrics are far less decisive. Form is nearly level at 54 to 46 in Hummetroth's favour, attack is dead even at 50 apiece, and defence tilts only mildly to Fernwald at 47 against 53, while the head-to-head split of 50/50 reflects two meetings that both ended as home wins, so it offers no real separation. Hummetroth's ten-game record of two wins, two draws and six defeats, including a four-match losing streak and a 0-5 home loss, contrasts with Fernwald's three wins, five draws and only two defeats, a profile built on avoiding loss rather than dominating. The goals data deepen that contrast: Hummetroth concede 2.20 per game overall and 2.80 at home, while Fernwald concede a steadier 1.40 both home and away, and Fernwald have kept three clean sheets to Hummetroth's one. Hummetroth's scoring is heavily home-weighted at 2.00 per home game versus 0.80 away, yet their last five show a 6-1 win over 1960 Hanau followed by a 2-1 win at Vfb Marburg, a 0-3 loss at Unter-Flockenbach, a 0-0 draw with Kassel 2 and a 1-2 home defeat to Hünfelder SV, so the recent picture is volatile rather than consistently poor. Fernwald's last five are similarly mixed, with a 0-0 draw against Eddersheim, a 3-4 loss at FC Gießen, a 1-1 draw at TuBa Pohlheim, a 2-0 win at Vfb Marburg and a 3-3 home draw with 1960 Hanau, which fits their season-long pattern of five draws in ten matches. The two head-to-head fixtures both finished as home victories, Fernwald winning 3-0 in April 2026 and Hummetroth winning 3-1 in September 2025, which slightly undercuts the away-leaning advice since the only precedent for this fixture favours whoever hosts. Overall, the double chance looks supported by Fernwald's superior defensive record, lower loss count and strong Poisson edge, but the even head-to-head, level attack metrics and Hummetroth's occasional scoring bursts mean the draw component of the advice carries much of the weight rather than a clear away win.

Predicted winner

Fernwald

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Fernwald

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Fernwald 3–0 Hummetroth (18 Apr 2026)
2. Hummetroth 3–1 Fernwald (27 Sep 2025)