Huesca II vs Fraga Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Huesca II a 45% home win probability and a 45% draw probability, leaving Fraga at just 10%, which underpins the double-chance advice on Huesca II or draw combined with a -3.5 goals line. That advice is broadly consistent with the goals evidence, since neither side has seen a match exceed 3.5 goals in the sample, and Huesca II's own games have stayed under 2.5 goals in all three league fixtures. However, the comparison metrics are more mixed than the headline probabilities suggest: Fraga lead on form (58 vs 42), attack (56 vs 44) and defence (60 vs 40), while Huesca II dominate the Poisson (100 vs 0), head-to-head (93 vs 7) and goals (73 vs 27) columns, so the model is leaning heavily on historical and venue-related signals rather than current form. The team analysis reinforces that tension, as Huesca II are unbeaten in three (DWD) with one home clean sheet and no failures to score, whereas Fraga are also unbeaten (WWD) and have scored five goals across their three matches, including a 3-1 home win. Fraga's goals analysis shows a 1.70 average scored and only 0.70 conceded, with all three of their goals arriving after the 46th minute and their only concession coming in the 76-90 window, hinting at a side that grows into games and defends leads late. Huesca II's goal profile is lower-scoring at 1.30 per game, with their four goals spread evenly across the 0-15, 46-60, 61-75 and 76-90 bands, and their three conceded goals split across the 16-30, 46-60 and 76-90 periods, suggesting no single dominant phase. The last-five records add a note of caution about the home side's recent form, since Huesca II's sequence includes a 4-1 win over Subiza but also a 0-1 loss at Sabiñánigo, while Fraga's run features a 0-0 draw at Atlético Monzón, a 3-1 win over Almudévar and a 2-1 win at Robres, plus older results from 2025 that are less relevant to current form. The head-to-head record is the strongest single pillar behind the Huesca II lean, with Huesca II winning 1-0 at home in April 2025 and 4-2 at home in January 2024, though Fraga have also won away at Huesca II twice (1-0 in December 2024 and 2-1 in May 2024) and drew 0-0 in February 2021, so the historical edge is real but not one-sided. Overall, the evidence supports the double-chance and under-3.5 combination as a reasonable reflection of a low-scoring, closely matched fixture, but the conflicting form and defensive metrics mean the 45% draw probability deserves as much weight as the home win, and the small three-match samples limit how confidently any trend can be projected.

Predicted winner

Huesca II

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : Huesca II or draw and -3.5 goals

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

-3.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Huesca II 1–0 Fraga (13 Apr 2025)
2. Fraga 0–1 Huesca II (06 Dec 2024)
3. Fraga 1–2 Huesca II (01 May 2024)
4. Huesca II 4–2 Fraga (07 Jan 2024)
5. Huesca II 0–0 Fraga (03 Feb 2021)