Holešov vs Kozlovice Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Kozlovice with a double-chance draw-or-away call, assigning 45% to both the draw and an away win while leaving Holešov at just 10%, a split that reflects how little separates the two non-home outcomes. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Kozlovice dominate form (75 vs 25), attack (61 vs 39), defence (75 vs 25), head-to-head (85 vs 15) and goals (71 vs 29), yet the Poisson measure flips to Holešov at 55 against 45, suggesting the goal-based model sees a tighter, lower-scoring contest than the raw form gap implies. The team analysis supports Kozlovice's edge over seven matches: they are unbeaten with six wins and one draw, have scored 21 and conceded only six, and have never failed to score, whereas Holešov sit on two wins, three draws and two losses with a distinctly home-weighted profile of two home wins and no away victories. Holešov's goals analysis shows a moderate 2.00 average scored and 1.60 conceded, but the split is stark, with 2.30 scored and just 1.00 conceded at home against 1.80 and 2.00 on the road, so their defensive solidity is largely a home phenomenon. Kozlovice's 3.00 goals-per-game average is inflated by 3.80 at home versus 2.00 away, and their 0.90 conceded overall splits into 0.50 at home and 1.30 away, meaning their away fixtures are noticeably less dominant than the headline numbers suggest. The last-five records qualify the form gap further: Kozlovice won four of five, including a 5-0 home rout of Brumov and a 1-0 win at Kroměříž II, but that sequence also contains a 0-6 home loss to Pardubice, a reminder that their defence can be breached heavily. Holešov's last five are far less convincing, with two draws, two defeats and a single 3-1 home win over Baťov, and they have scored just once across their two most recent outings, which tempers confidence in them converting home advantage. The head-to-head record is the strongest single argument for the away side, since Kozlovice have won five of the last ten meetings, including 4-2 and 6-2 home victories and a 1-0 cup win, while Holešov's only successes came away from home in 2023 and 2024 and the two most recent league fixtures at Střelnice both ended level at 1-1 and 0-0. Taken together, the evidence points to Kozlovice as the more reliable side and justifies avoiding a straight away bet, but the Poisson disagreement, Kozlovice's heavier away concession rate and Holešov's home-only defensive record mean the draw component of the double chance carries real weight rather than being a formality.

Predicted winner

Kozlovice

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Kozlovice

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Holešov 1–1 Kozlovice (25 Apr 2026)
2. Kozlovice 4–2 Holešov (21 Sep 2025)
3. Holešov 0–0 Kozlovice (17 May 2025)
4. Kozlovice 6–2 Holešov (13 Oct 2024)
5. Kozlovice 1–0 Holešov (28 Jul 2024)