Hønefoss vs Tromsdalen Uil Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model favours Hønefoss with a double-chance recommendation of win or draw, assigning 45% to a home win and 45% to a draw against only 10% for a Tromsdalen Uil victory. That split is broadly consistent with the comparison metrics, where Hønefoss leads on form (63 versus 38) and Poisson (68 versus 32), yet it is qualified by Tromsdalen's slight edges in attack (53 versus 47), defence (53 versus 47), goals (57 versus 43) and head-to-head (67 versus 33), while the total scores are effectively level at 50.20 and 50.00. The season records reinforce the home side's stronger baseline, with Hønefoss winning 13 of 20 and losing only 4, compared with Tromsdalen's 9 wins and 9 defeats, although Hønefoss's 20-match form string still contains intermittent losses that prevent this from looking like dominance. Hønefoss's goals analysis shows a clear two-way profile: 51 goals scored at 2.60 per game but 28 conceded at 1.40, with a striking 34.88% of their goals arriving in the 76-90 window and only 3 clean sheets all season. Tromsdalen's numbers are more modest and more balanced, with 34 goals for and 34 against at 1.70 each, and their 6 failures to score in 20 matches suggest an attack that can be contained even though they produced a 9-1 win and a 6-0 away win in their recent run. The last-five records add a conflicting signal: Hønefoss are unbeaten with four wins and a draw, scoring in every match, while Tromsdalen have won three of five but lost twice without scoring, so their threat appears volatile rather than sustained. The head-to-head record is the strongest counterweight to the advice, since Tromsdalen won the most recent meeting 3-0 in May 2026 and also won 5-1 at home in September 2025, with Hønefoss's only success a 3-2 away win in April 2025. Taken together, the form, Poisson and league-record evidence supports the win-or-draw position, but the head-to-head history, Tromsdalen's marginal attacking and defensive edges, and the near-identical total scores mean the 10% away probability looks like the least secure part of the model's output.

Predicted winner

Hønefoss

Betting advice

Double chance : Hønefoss or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

—

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Tromsdalen Uil 0–3 Hønefoss (10 May 2026)
2. Tromsdalen Uil 5–1 Hønefoss (07 Sep 2025)
3. Hønefoss 2–3 Tromsdalen Uil (27 Apr 2025)