HJK W vs HPS W Prediction

Match prediction

• HJK's dominant attack and defence metrics, plus a strong Poisson and head-to-head edge, support the model's home win advice despite equal 45% home and draw probabilities.
• The 45% draw probability reflects HPS's resilience, including a recent 3-3 draw at HJK and only five league defeats, so the win advice carries notable risk.
• HJK's recent heavy losses to Brann W contrast with their otherwise excellent form, suggesting the model may underweight that recent vulnerability.
• HPS's away scoring struggles, with five failed-to-score matches and a 1.00 away average, weaken their chances of exploiting any HJK defensive lapse.
• HJK's 3.30 home goals average against HPS's 1.10 away concession rate points to a high-scoring home performance, reinforcing the winner selection.
• The head-to-head record is mixed, with HPS winning twice in 2026, so the 85% H2H home edge may overstate HJK's consistency in this matchup.

Predicted winner

HJK W

Betting advice

Winner : HJK W

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. HPS W 3–3 HJK W (21 Aug 2026)
2. HJK W 4–0 HPS W (19 Jul 2026)
3. HPS W 1–2 HJK W (17 May 2026)
4. HPS W 1–1 HJK W (24 Sep 2025)
5. HJK W 5–2 HPS W (22 Aug 2025)